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G10 Financial Scorecard: Long SEK, JPY, CHF Versus NZD, EUR, USD‏

ByDanske Markets
Published 11/04/2013, 05:06 AM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM
EUR/USD
0.11%

This week the scorecard recommends buying SEK, JPY and CHF while selling NZD, EUR and USD.

Last week's SEK sell-off seems overdone according to the model, and the scorecard recommends buying SEK this week even though most input factors - notably interest rates - still point in the other direction. The scorecard also recommends buying JPY as technicals, interest rates and risk premium input factors all favour a long JPY position.

All input factors currently favour being short NZD and this week's short basket mainly consists of NZD. Following last week's rally, the FX score and the technical input factor in particular suggest selling NZD. The USD was last week's top performer among G10 and the scorecard recommends selling USD this week, even though option market positioning (risk reversals) has turned less bearish on the dollar. Finally, this week's short basket includes EUR as all input factors indicate further EUR weakness even as last week's drop in EUR/USD is taken into account.

Last week's signals resulted in a 0.4% gain. In particular, the short SEK position performed well.

Next scorecard signals will be sent out on 11 November.

To Read the Entire Report Please Click on the pdf File Below.

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