G10 Critical Points
The commonality in non USD pairs is marked by solid and rising supports. Current 1.1137 and 1.1180 in EUR/USD, for example, are clear price drivers over the past month. Both points began last month at 1.1104 and 1.1153, a 33 and 27 pip move. The point at 1.1137 is a special 100 day average and is not as overbought at the 1.1180 level. The reason why 1.1180 is severely overbought intraday is because EUR/USD gains were broad based from the full distribution of averages from 5 - 253 day. Those averages are running inside a tight range between 1.1083 - 1.1268, and it is quite easy to see any further EUR gains become overbought. A similar situation is seen in NZD/USD, as points 0.6607 and 0.6625 offer solid supports inside averages from 5 - 100 day that also offer solid support. The big break for NZD is found at 0.6607 and reveals a trend just beginning.
GBP/USD is quite the opposite, as 1.5325 may offer support below, but the falling 1.5500 line is dropping fast. What's driving GBP are current overbought averages from 5 - 20 day. What contained GBP last quarter was improved Wage data. What contains GBP this quarter is the BOE threat to raise the Bank rate as GBP interest rates remain elevated and high enough to further contain GBP/USD in tight ranges.
AUD/USD remains elevated due to supports below at 0.7258 and 0.7242. AUD is driven by averages 5 - 50 day and are currently overbought.
USD/CAD is an example of rising resistance lines and quite opposite of those support lines found in non-USD pairs. Last month, points at 1.2987 and 1.3083 rose to current 1.3001 and 1.3015. USD/CAD is driven by averages 5- 50, same as AUD, but the 50 day average at 1.3228 is the key driver and is severely oversold.
EUR/USD should offer the best opportunities, as 1.1596 is falling vs. current prices and it's the point that must break in order to see EUR/USD prices far higher. Secondly, EUR/USD is not only overbought, but volatility is literally at 0 .