USD strength continues
USD strength continues. EUR/USD dipped below 2019 lows and touched 1.0905 overnight on little significant news. This is testament to just how supportive the current environment remains for USD. We see at least three reasons for that. 1) A Fed that still appears reactive rather than proactive.2) Continued worries over trade talks. 3) Investors having second thoughts regarding Brexit risks which have otherwise been priced out lately.In this week's FX Forecast Update: Scandi fragility to rule well into autumn (24 September) we stressed that USD strength is set to persist near term but notably kept our 3M (NYSE:MMM) EUR/USD targets unchanged at 1.10 (USD/DKK: 6.79, USD/SEK: 9.82, USD/NOK: 9.09). We do stress that a further dip in EUR/USD is on the cards as the above-mentioned factors are set to dominate into early October; technically, good support is seen in the cross at 1.0865 though. Further, global recession risks are set to linger for some time still as stressed in A Deep Dive Into The Global Recession Risk (27 September) and support USD in broader terms.
Where does it end? Watch these three
First, will U.S.-China trade talks set to resume in the week starting Oct. 7 result in an interim deal? Market expectations seem rather downbeat and if progress is shown, it should provide some relief for EUR/USD. We do stress that it will likely not be the start of a USD weakness trend in itself, as elevated tensions between the countries suggest that a 'real' deal remains far away. The joker here is that the impeachment process against the U.S. President could make Trump try to direct focus elsewhere, e.g. towards landing a deal.
Second, will the Fed end its 'America first' approach to policy at the Oct . 30 Fed meeting? We expect the Fed to cut rates once more by 25bp (both in October and December) but also look for a more permanent fix to the latest money-market turmoil. This should put short-end U.S. rates back on a declining path and may help resume the carry erosion in USD. In light of current Fed pricing, room remains to price more easing: markets see just one 25bp cut in Q4 while we still look for two.
Third, developments in Europe (or what is left of it) remain key still. The Oct. 17-18 EU summit ahead of the Oct. 19 deadline for the UK to ask for an extension will be integral in weighing Brexit risks. In our view, another extension is likely and when granted should hold a hand under EUR (and GBP of course). What about the eurozone? The ECB will sit on its hands for now, but if inflation expectations continue to edge lower, EUR support could resume, as it will leave the sense of deflation grabbing hold - after all.
In sum: do not fight USD strength near term, but we maintain that it will not last forever and still see EUR/USD grinding higher as 2020 progress (12M target remains 1.15).