The rising risk of a US-China trade war has put downward pressure on the CNY and we now see more CNY weakness ahead.
We revise our USD/CNY and EUR/CNY forecasts higher, targeting USD/CNY at 6.70 in 12M (previously 6.25) and EUR/CNY at 8.38 in 12M (previously 7.94) amid further easing by the People's Bank of China (PBoC) and outflows are set to pick up.
We recommend that corporates with CNY receivables and assets in China hedge the currency risk via EUR/CNH FX forwards.
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