US Dollar Index Speculator Positions
Large currency speculators continued to add to their bullish net positions in the US Dollar Index futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.
The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 15,616 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday, April 21st. This was a weekly lift of 259 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,357 net contracts.
This week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) advancing by 982 contracts (to a weekly total of 24,844 contracts) compared to the gross bearish position (shorts) which saw a smaller increase by 723 contracts on the week (to a total of 9,228 contracts).
US Dollar Index speculators once again increased their bullish bets for a fifth consecutive week and the overall net position is now up to the most bullish level of the past seven weeks. Speculator sentiment has come back steadily in the past five weeks after bullish bets had previously dropped to a ninety-two week low on March 17th at just +7,152 contracts. The dollar index speculative positions have now managed to remain in bullish territory for one-hundred and two straight weeks, dating back to May 15th of 2018.
Individual Currencies Data this week: Euro bets rise, Peso bets continue dropping
In the other major currency contracts data, we saw rather subdued weekly movements with no substantial changes (+ or – 10,000 contracts) in the speculators category this week.
Notables:
Speculators continued to increase their Euro bullish positions this week for an eighth consecutive week. The current spec standing is the highest bullish level in ninety-seven weeks, dating back to June of 2018. Despite the boost in speculator sentiment, the euro currency has been under pressure against the dollar with the EURUSD currency pair remaining under the 1.0850 exchange rate.
Japanese yen speculative bets rose modestly this week and gained for a third straight week. The yen positions are now back to the highest level in five weeks and are in a bullish position for the seventh straight week overall.
Mexican peso positions dropped once again this week for the twelfth straight week and now by a total of -169,126 contracts over that time-frame. The peso position hit a record high bullish position of +170,366 contracts on January 28th before turning over and have now fallen to a total of just +1,240 contracts in the latest data.
Overall, the major currencies that saw improving speculator positions this week were the US dollar index (259 weekly change in contracts), euro (601 contracts), Japanese yen (3,383 contracts), Swiss franc (267 contracts), Australian dollar (734 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (319 contracts).
The currencies whose speculative bets declined on the week were the British pound sterling (-4,612 weekly change in contracts), Canadian dollar (-131 contracts) and the Mexican peso (-2,093 contracts).
Chart: Current Strength of Each Currency compared to their 3-Year Range
The above chart depicts each currency’s current speculator strength level compared to data of the past 3 years. A score of 0 percent would mean speculator bets are currently at the lowest level of the past three years. A 100 percent score would be at the highest level while a 50 percent score would mean speculator bets are right in the middle of the data (a neutral score). We use above 80 percent (extreme bullish) and below 20 percent (extreme bearish) as extreme score measurements.
Please see the data table and individual currency charts below.
Table of Large Speculator Levels & Weekly Changes:
This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.
Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price
EuroFX:
The Euro large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 87,218 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 601 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 86,617 net contracts.
British Pound Sterling:
The large British pound sterling speculator level was a net position of -1,380 contracts in the data reported this week. This was a weekly lowering of -4,612 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,232 net contracts.
Japanese Yen:
Large Japanese yen speculators totaled a net position of 26,026 contracts in this week’s data. This was a weekly advance of 3,383 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,643 net contracts.
Swiss Franc:
The Swiss franc speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 4,924 contracts in the data through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 267 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,657 net contracts.
Canadian Dollar:
Canadian dollar speculators came in at a net position of -23,891 contracts this week. This was a lowering of -131 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,760 net contracts.
Australian Dollar:
The large speculator positions in Australian dollar futures resulted in a net position of -34,820 contracts this week in the data ending Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 734 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,554 net contracts.
New Zealand Dollar:
The New Zealand dollar speculative standing equaled a net position of -14,259 contracts this week in the latest COT data. This was a weekly increase of 319 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,578 net contracts.
Mexican Peso:
Mexican peso speculators came in at a net position of 1,240 contracts this week. This was a weekly lowering of -2,093 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,333 net contracts.