This week the scorecard recommends buying the NOK, CHF and CAD, while selling the USD, EUR and GBP.
Last week's sell-off in the NOK seems overdone according to the model and thus this week the Scorecard recommends buying the NOK. The CHF was also among the currencies that suffered last week and the scorecard recommends buying the CHF this week due to last week's sell-off. Finally, the long basket this week includes the CAD. Especially the input factor for risk premiums has a constructive view on the CAD after last week's decline in 1M implied USD/CAD volatility.
Following last week's rally in the USD and the GBP, the short basket this week includes both currencies. Note, however, that the input factors for interest rates, option market positioning and the technical input factor all have a strong positive signal on the GBP. Finally, the Scorecard also recommends selling the EUR this week as most input factors have a negative view on the EUR.
Last week's signals resulted in a 0.8% gain. Especially the short JPY and NZD positions performed well. Year to date the Scorecard model has generated a total profit of 4.3%.
Due to Easter Monday this week's signals will only be valid for four business days. Thus, next scorecard signals will be sent out on 28 April.
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