This week the scorecard recommends buying GBP, CHF and USD while selling AUD, NZD and JPY.
Last week's sell-off in the GBP seems overdone according to the model. In addition, most other input factors also have a constructive view (albeit not significant) on the GBP and thus the Scorecard recommends buying GBP this week. All input factors, with the exception of the FX input factor, currently favour being long CHF. Especially the input factor for option market risk premiums has a constructive view on CHF following the past weeks decline in 1M USD/CHF implied volatility. Finally, the long basket this week also includes USD following last week's sell-off.
All input factors currently favour being short AUD and thus the Scorecard recommends selling AUD this week. Last week's rallies in NZD and JPY seem overdone and thus the Scorecard also recommends selling both currencies. Note however, that most other input factors besides the FX score actually favour being long NDZ. Especially New Zealand interest rates currently outperform (higher rates) according to the model.
Last week's signals resulted in a 0.4% loss. Especially the short JPY and CAD positions were expensive. Year to date, the Scorecard model has generated a total profit of 3.7%.
Next scorecard signals will be sent out on 07 July.
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