In Sweden, the week ahead will be interesting as we receive industrial and service data (Fri., at 09.30 CET), which have high relevance for the outlook for the Swedish economy. While domestic demand growth is losing some momentum due to saturation, we expect to see external demand lending a hand in the coming months. Of course, recent financial and international developments raise some question marks on our optimistic views, which is why we will 'carefully monitor developments'. PMI-data is also published (Mon., at 08.30 CET).
Next week, it is also time for figures from the Swedish Debt Office. Can it surprise positively again? The result for 2015 was a deficit of SEK33bn, an improvement of SEK40bn compared with 2014. The Swedish debt office will also tap SEK 2bn in both the 5Y and the 10Y benchmark.
In Norway manufacturing production fell steadily in 2015 until climbing 1.0% m/m in November. We think it is too early for the downward trend to have reversed and so expect a fresh decrease of 0.5% m/m in December, which is supported by the PMI. The week also brings PMI data for January, which should be interesting given the slide in oil prices over the last couple of months, and LFS unemployment for November (October-December), where we expect an unchanged rate of 4.6%.
In Denmark the Nationalbank will publish currency reserves numbers for January on Tuesday. These will be interesting, because the reserves spent most of 2015 on a downward trajectory after the influx of currency at the beginning of the year.
The Danish Debt Management Office is coming to the market this week and have opted for the long end with taps in the DGB '25 and the DGB '39. Denmark has the last couple of months widened to Germany and the extra pick-up should attract investors.
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