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FX Noon: A Sigh Of Relief

BySaxo Bank
AuthorSaxo Bank
Published 05/01/2015, 08:35 AM
Updated 03/19/2019, 04:00 AM
EUR/USD
-0.30%
EUR/AUD
0.33%

All the news fit to print amounted to a grand total of zero overnight. As the world (sans the UK) goes on holiday today – with even China off – markets are coming to terms with what has been a rather eventful few days and breathing a much-needed sigh of relief that the long weekend is truly upon us.

We’ve only got Canadian Manufacturing data and US ISM and confidence prints to look out for today in what will likely prove to be an otherwise quiet and rather thinly volume-driven session.

Having already witnessed (a leaked and softer) UK Manufacturing PMI, there remains little to actually go on in terms of direction today.

Once again for the sake of transparency, I remain short of Cable and have now also lost my first clip of EURAUD on this morning’s disingenuous spike higher in the cross. Stops in the AUD were taken while someone chose the thinnest part of the day to run some latent EURUSD stops above the 1.1250 area, and as the French would say, voila!

Given the current environment of trepidation in markets coupled with holidays in Europe today and in the UK on Monday, it is painfully obvious I’ll have to run this position through the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting next week.

I am not a fan of leaving myself at the mercy of a central bank decision, and I am also banking on my "RBA fails to move" thesis being proven correct. The subsequent covering squeeze of front-running (media driven) shorts coupled with consolidation in the EURUSD should hopefully see the cross lower on mean reversion.

Little else to add today folks, given the obvious dearth of activity and thus the accompanying lack of interest.

A good weekend to all and remember to avoid ruining it with a cheap Friday punt.

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