While GDP averages may not trade overbought or oversold, at 3.2 and 2.6 remains far too high an overall price as 2.6 is located between the ten and 11-year averages from 2.29 to 2.37.
The Atlanta Fed Now offers 3.5. The 3.5 is located at averages three years, 6 and 7. The seven-year average is perfect for the Atlanta Fed’s forecast. But still too high an overall price.
Our forecasts and not perfect for this release are 3.89 to 3.45 and 3.33.
GDP’s proper location and any economic release are between the 1 – 5 year average. The 3.2 and 2.6 are today located above the ten and 11-year averages and signify too high a price.
The Atlanta Fed forecasts GDP by updates to each economic release and then predicts GDP by using weather as a forecasting tool.
The weather aspects verify my claim over the years to purchase weather books to learn and understand a market price. Weather is statistics in action, and the older the books, the better, less expensive, and more examples of Statistics.
In the market, trading is spoken ranges. Weather books teach the breakdown of ranges as Terciles, Quintiles, Quartiles, and Deciles for 3, 4, 5, and 10. The market price is now scaled from 3 to 10, but the overall must scale from 1 to 10.
More accessible than the Atlanta Fed is obtain the GDP data from the RBNZ. The RBNZ will post today’s GDP data tomorrow, so traders are prepared for the next GDP release. AS well GDP is the insight into all economic releases.
The data allows for pessimistic GDP forecasts, as done in July.
Next Week
AUD/USD achieved the target at 0.7082 as written on January 9. Ranges are located at 0.6831, 0.6986 to 0.7135.
EUR/USD ranges from 1.0579 – 1.0892 or 313 pips and 1.0892 to 1.1127. The range from 1.0579 to 1.0892 is slowly compressing as the range lost about 40 pips this week.
EUR/AUD big break for higher is located at 1.5446, and oversold begins at 1.6267.
GBP/AUD as the better trade to EUR/AUD remains deeply oversold and targets 1.7546.
GBP/AUD trade strategy is the same as two weeks ago to long any price at 1.7300s and 1.7400s. Each trade long should contain a 50 pip profit, and 3 and 4 rounds of longs exist.
GBP/USD trades 1.2096 to 1.2551. GBP/USD must begin a more concerted process to break 1.2551, or GBP/USD drops too low to 1.2300s and high to 1.2200s.
GBP/JPY big break at 156.29 moved higher by 16 pips in 2 weeks. GBP/JPY ranges from 156.29 to 161.78. EUR/JPY lower on a break at 141.46.
USD/JPY trades oversold and targets higher at 130.03. Any price over 130.03 is a bonus to shorts.
USD/CAD, CAD/MXN and Imports
USD/CAD trades in a 300 pips range from 1.3300’s to 1.3600’s and fails to trade alongside DXY.
Import Prices drive USD/CAD to the United States. Imports hit a 2020 April low at -6.8. USD/CAD followed the continuous import price drop from -1.3 in February 2020. Then began a slow rise.
CAD/MXN skyrocketed from February lows at 13.97 to 18.17 highs in April. Then began the slow descent. Import prices trade dead center from March 2022 highs at 13.0 to -6.8 at April’s lows.
The next Import price release is scheduled for February 17. USD/CAD big break is located at 1.3412, and CAD/MXN is at 14.40.