STOCKS: The world economy is muddling through. The US payroll tax increase and sequestration are headwinds to the US economy, China is being pressured by Japan, and both the US and Chinese housing market are weakening. The eurozone remains mired in inaction, athough showing signs of growth. Quite clearly, we feel risk is being mispriced at current levels given the economic backdrop and developing pressure upon corporate revenues/margins/earnings. At some point, the market will view the central banks will be non-sequitur.
STRATEGY: The S&P 500 remains above the 160-wma long-term support level at 1375; and the standard 200-dma support level at 1580. But perhaps more importantly, the distance above the 160-wma falied at the +23- to +25% zone that is our “bubble-like rally” threshold. Hence, a correction of some proportion is forthcoming — perhaps -15% or more.
THIS MORNING MARKETS ARE MOSTLY “HIGHER” as the past several day decline across all the capital markets, excluding the bond market, looks to try and regain its footing. After last Wednesday’s surprise decision by the Fed to keep their bond-buying campaign in place for the time being, the markets have begun to worry that what they are seeing is not what the Fed is seeing, or else they would have come to the taper table. They did not, and this is causing confidence concerns amongst market participants. And this is developing against the backdrop of strengthening Chinese and European manufacturing and confidence figures.
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