The US dollar is under pressure this morning, although this pressure isn’t material unless one considers it is the Aussie Dollar…which is being driving by better-than expected Chinese PMI data. Outside of this, the “risk-on” trade is on, but more so in the other capital markets rather than in the forex markets. We see very little actionable at this very juncture; we were stopped out last week on our long USD/JPY position, but remain short GBP/CAD…which is working well for us this morning.
Moving on, remain very interested in the current correction of the US dollar back towards its 200-day moving average at 76.54 and the Euro rising to meet its 200-day moving average at 1.4094. Each has implications for our next position trade as we want to be long USD and short other currencies – namely the EUR…and we want to be short EUR on the cross rates as well. For now, there is no propensity to trade in either unless it is for a day trade or two and this is not. What this letter is about – it’s about the next large position trade that we can work for week upon months.
Please see the attached pdf file for the full report.