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Oil traded near the highest level in almost four months in New York before reports that may show the economy recovering in the U.S., the world’s biggest crude-consuming nation. West Texas Intermediate futures swung between gains and losses after climbing 0.6% yesterday. Retail sales probably rose for a second month in December. Other reports this week are projected to show increases in industrial production and homebuilding. Heating oil advanced a second day after the biggest gain since November on forecasts for colder weather on the U.S. East Coast and Midwest. If we test $95 a barrel on the topside, I think we’ll see oil break through. Crude for February delivery was at $94.07 a barrel.
GOLD (GC)
Danske Bank A/S and Credit Suisse Group AG, the most-accurate gold forecasters, say prices will probably peak this year while their nearest rival, UniCredit SpA, sees no end in sight to the 12-year bull market. Gold will average $1,720 an ounce this year and $1,600 in 2014, all three forecast record average prices this year because central-bank stimulus will sustain buying as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation. Danske and Credit Suisse predict lower prices in 2014 as economic growth curbs demand for the metal as a protector of wealth while UniCredit says record- low interest rates will maintain gold’s allure. Investors bought $140.9 billion through exchange-traded products since gold’s longest bull market in at least nine decades, creating a hoard bigger than the official reserves of all but two nations. Prices have retreated for three successive months as Europe’s debt crisis eased and faster growth from the U.S. to China spurred speculation that central banks will pare back stimulus.