Futures Market Update

Buy 1278.75 stop.  Protective stop 1259.50.  Potential projection 1300.00.
Reasons for the Trade:
1.  The monthly chart is triggering a preliminary buy signal this month.
2.  On the monthly chart the emini rallied over the 20,100 & 150 day ma four months ago.  They all had intersected at the same price area.  That is strong support and the emini has held that support since.
3.  The weekly chart triggered a buy last week.
4.  The daily chart has a previous buy that is still intact.
5.  Today was an outside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
 
GRAIN COMMENTS:   

MAR CORN:   I tried to buy it today.  It triggered a sell instead and sold off to 639 1/2.  It has some support around 635.  In my previous Update I pointed out that it had succeeded in rallying over the 20 day ma on the weekly chart.  As of today it is back under it.  It remains to be seen whether the gap down at 621 3/4 is a breakaway gap or not.  Best to just watch for now.  Closed 643 1/2, down 15.

MAR MINI WHEAT:  Stops were reached today.  The fills were not good.  Its effort to rally over the 100 day ma on the weekly was negated today.  In fact it is now back under both that average and the 20 day ma on that chart.  The monthly chart is still triggering a preliminary buy.  The low today was 626 1/2.  It has support at 625.  Watching closely.  Closed 629 1/4, down 20 3/4.
Position:  Long 660 (1.3).  Exit 638 (1.5).  Loss $275 (+comm/fees).

MAR MINI BEANS:  They seem headed for the 1200 support.  They filled the gap up at 1215 3/4 today.  There is another gap down at 1176 1/4.  Is it a break away gap or not?  We should know soon enough.  Just watching.  Closed 1209, down 21.
 
MAR MEAL:  An inside day yesterday triggered a sell today.  It sold off to 313.20.  This week's rally reached the 20, 100 & 150 day ma on the weekly and that was it.  It has support at 310.00 on the daily chart.  Not holding that may suggest that we have seen the rally in the meal.  Closed 313.20, down 7.40.
 
MAR BEAN OIL:  It sold off today to 52.05.  The 52.00 level is support.  On the weekly chart it is trying to hold at the 20 day ma.  On the monthly it is still above that average and it has triggered a preliminary buy.  I moved stops from 51.42 up to 51.72.  Closed 52.06, down .97.
Position  Long 53.20 (1.3).
Projection 54.75.
 
MEAT COMMENTS:
 
FEB HOGS:  In the last two weeks they have attempted twice to get over the 20 day ma on the daily chart.  Yesterday was the second attempt and they failed.  They sold off to the 83.75 support.  The weekly chart has a buy and is holding at the 100 day ma.  The monthly has failed the 20 day ma, so far, this month.  On the monthly chart they are sitting right on the uptrend line formed since the 2009 low.  If they violate that trend line that would suggest lower prices.  Just watching for now.  Closed 83.85, down 1.32.
 
FEB CATTLE:  They triggered a sell Wed.  They held near a previous low area on the daily and tried to rally.  They reached the 100 & 150 day ma today and stopped.  They then sold off again.  Right now they need to get under 120.50 approximately for more follow through.  Today's low 120.90.  Keep stops at 123.22.  Closed 120.95, down .67.
Position:  Short 121.37 (1.4).
Projection:  118.97.
 
SOFTS:
 
MAR COTTON:  I had raised the stop and it was reached yesterday with a profit.  Today it started to sell off with a low at 94.38.  Just watching.  Closed 94.74, down 1.18.
Position:  Long 92.15 (1.3).  Exit 94.95 (1.4).  Profit $1345 (-comm/fees).
 
MAR ORANGE JUICE:  The long term charts suggest higher prices yet.  On the daily it has closed over 175.00 for two days in a row.  That is now good support.  Today was an inside day but I prefer to watch.  Closed 177.60, down .45.
 
MAR COFFEE:  Today's sell-off further confirms that the recent rally was a test of that breakout from the descending triangle and not much more.  It is back under the 20 day ma after holding if for more than a week.  Again, if it can take out the 12.19 low of 212.35, it should be headed for 200.00.  Closed 219.55, down 7.15.
 
MAR COCOA:  I shorted it today. It sold off to 2016.  Keep stops at 21.61.  Closed 20.28, down .47.
Position:  Short 20.61 (1.5).
Projection:  18.80.
 
MAR SUGAR:  What a difference a day makes!  The attempted breakout referred to last time ended up to be a false breakout.  In one day it negated that breakout and sold off to the low end of the consolidation it was forming.  Watching closely as it may show its true colors and now break out to the downside.  Closed 23.13, down 1.29.
METALS & ENERGY COMMENTS:

MAR COPPER:  In my last report it looked headed for 375.00.  But it appears the pressure seen in all the markets today because of continued euroland issues, dragged copper with it.  It is now puzzling because both gold and silver rallied while copper sold off???  Possibly copper will recover.  Just watching.  Closed 342.65, down .80.
 
FEB MINI GOLD:  The current rally reached the 20 day ma on the daily today.  This is the third day that gold held over 1600.00.  That is encouraging.  The real key technically is for it to get over 1650.00.  That would take out the high of the 12.21 rally and help negate the downtrend.  Closed 1620.10, up 7.40.
 
MAR MINI SILVER:  This is the third day it has been held back by the 20 day ma.  As mentioned before, it needs to get over 30.000.  Just watching.  Closed 29.296, up .199.
 
MAR MINI CRUDE OIL:  It took out the Nov. 17 high (103.20) yesterday but could not sustain it.  The new high 103.90.  It is now back under 102.00.  It needs to get over 105.00 to rally further.  It has a gap up at 109.60 made in May of 2011.  If crude continues to sell off, it needs to test and hold 100.00.  Watching closely.  Closed 102.00, down 1.40.
 
CURRENCIES & FINANCIALS:
 
MAR MINI JAPANESE YEN:  Earlier this week it made a major hurtle of getting over the 100 day ma.  That has been a struggle since it first failed it back in October.  It was a short lived success.  Today it is right back under it.  Fundamentally Japan has every negative imaginable and should not be at this level.  Unfortunately, the market doesn't seem aware of that.  Possibly now it may be catching up with that fact.  Closed 129.70, down .73.
 
MAR SWISS FRANC:  Today it took out the Dec. 15 low of 105.01.  Today's low 104.98.  On the weekly it is struggling at the 100 day ma.  On the monthly it is under the 20 day ma.  These are not good technical signs.  Just looking at the long term charts the swiss looks headed for 100.00.  Closed 105.02, down 1.24.
 
MAR DOLLAR INDEX:  Typo error:  My buy entry should have read 80.850.  It had rallied past my price during the day session and did not back off enough to warrant entry.  Today's high 81.345.  Waiting for a setback to go long.  Closed 81.250, up .825.
 
MAR MINI EUROCURRENCY:  It triggered a sell today.  I paid up for it.  It sold off to 127.770.  Keep stops at 130.990.  Closed 127.920, down 1.52.
Position:  Short 128.150 (1.5).
Projection:  126.000.
 
MAR CANADIAN DOLLAR:  It gapped up on Tuesday and filled that gap today.  It has succeeded breaking out of the pennant to the upside but failed today.  It is right back in the pennant.  This market is still a toss up.  Just watching.  Closed 9.94, down .60.
 
MAR AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR:  It was trading into a pennant an broke out of it to the upside.  It is still maintaining that gain but did start to sell off today.  The 102.00 level has been an issue for some time.  It did get over it only to sell off under it today.  The low 101.501.  Closed 101.85, down .97.

MAR E-MINI S&P:  In October it made a high at 1283.00.  Tuesday it made a high of 1280.00.  It has not been able to match that since.  The technicals are positive.  A trade could be developing.  See Trade Alert for details.  Closed 1273.00, unchanged.
 
MAR 10 YR. NOTES:  It continues to consolidate near resistance (131.000 +).  This has been going on for four months.  The weekly holds at support and has a buy signal.  With the conflict between the charts it is a toss up as to its direction.  Just watching.  Closed 130.160, up .035.