In the euro area monetary development will be in focus as credit contraction continues to be one of the key risks to the recovery. Currently the forthcoming Asset Quality Review may be an obstacle for the ECB's easy monetary stance. We expect banks to focus less on their balance sheets and start to lend more money in 2014, when data for the review have been collected.
We foresee a minor increase in German Ifo expectations in line with manufacturing PMI released yesterday. In September Ifo expectations pointed to growth around 0.6% q/q in Germany.
In the UK we expect GDP growth to be 0.7% q/q in Q3, which is suggested by the positive data releases since summer.
In the US focus will be on durable goods orders. Core capital goods orders, which can be used as a proxy for business investments, have been surprisingly weak and we expect an increase in September.
The final release of the University of Michigan consumer confidence is expected to be soft reflecting uncertainty caused by the government shutdown and the debt ceiling debate.
Swedish household and business confidence surveys as well as household lending statistics are due for release.
To Read the Entire Report Please Click on the pdf File Below.
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Friday's Market Outlook
Published 10/25/2013, 07:33 AM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM
Friday's Market Outlook
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