Market movers today
Focus is on the US labour market report for August. We look for a positive surprise with a solid increase in non-farm payrolls of 260,000 (consensus 230,000) and a decline in the unemployment rate to 6.1%, see US Labour Market: Job growth is strengthening , 1 September. Continuously low jobless claim figures, a very high ISM employment index as well as optimistic hiring plans are the main reasons for the estimate. Moreover, service payrolls in the July report came out low at 140,000 and we expect a decent rebound, pulling up the total non-farm forecast. Only weak spot in the range of job data recently was the ADP employment number yesterday, showing a rise in private employment of 204k. However, the monthly changes in ADP are not normally a very good predictor of monthly changes in non-farm payrolls.
Also in the US, Fed's Rosengren (dovish, non-voter) speaks and any comments related to the labour market report and changes to the Fed statement will be in focus.
In Europe German industrial production for July is released. Following the strong German factory orders we have revised our forecast up to 1.2% m/m. The figure for orders confirmed our view that the economic weakness in Q2 was temporary and that the German economy will expand again in Q3.
The second release of euro GDP growth should confirm the stagnation in Q2 but we expect the first release of the underlying components to reveal a rise in private consumption from 0.2% q/q to 0.3% q/q, while investments declined 1.0% q/q.
In Scandinavia it is time for industrial production data in both Sweden and Norway.
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