Market Movers
Q4 GDP for the euro area as a whole and several euro area countries is due for release today. Based on our 'hard data' model we look for a rise in euro-area GDP of 0.3% q/q. Consensus is split with about 50-50 saying 0.2% and 0.3%. Ahead of the euro-area release GDP for Germany and France is due. We look for German GDP to rise 0.3% q/q for the second quarter in a row and French GDP to rise 0.2% q/q.
US industrial production for January is also due for release and we see downside risk to this number based on the sharp decline in ISM manufacturing in January. The poor retail sales out yesterday also suggest that demand was weak in January. We look for a rise of 0.1% m/m versus consensus 0.3% m/m.
In the US we are also due preliminary University of Michigan consumer confidence for February. We expect a small decline from 81.2 to 80.6 (consensus 80.5).
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