Main focus will be on US nonfarm payrolls. However, since the data are likely to be distorted by the government shutdown the market may react less to it. If anything, the reaction could be a bit asymmetric. If the outcome is weak, the shutdown will get the blame. If strong, it may signal an underlying pick-up in the job market. We look for only 115k in job growth in October, slightly below consensus of 125k, but uncertainty is high.
Preliminary US consumer confidence for November from University of Michigan will give a first hint of how protracted the negative effect from the shutdown is. Sentiment should see support from falling gasoline prices and strong equity markets.
Other data of interest will be German trade balance, French industrial production and US personal spending and core PCE inflation.
There will also be speeches from both ECB and Fed members. Tonight Fed chairman Bernanke speaks at an IMF conference about the financial crisis.
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