- Daily Pivots: (S1) 139.80; (P) 140.88; (R1) 141.60.
With four-hour MACD staying below signal line, intraday bias in GBP/JPY is turned neutral for the moment. Though, as long as 139.50 minor support holds, recent rally is expected to resume sooner rather than later. Current should target next medium term retracement level at 145.39. However, break of 139.50 will indicate short term topping and bring deeper pull back before staging another rally.
In the bigger picture, the strong break of 140.02 (50% retracement of 163.05 to 116.83 at 139.94) indicates that whole medium term fall fro 163.05 has completed at 116.83 already. It's a bit early to conclude reversal of the long term down trend from 251.09 (2007 high). But rise from 116.83 should at least be a move at the same degree as fall from 163.05. Thus, medium term rise is now expected back to 163.05. We'll stay bullish as long as 133.48 resistance turned support holds.
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EUR/JPY Daily Outlook
- Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.25; (P) 114.22; (R1) 114.79.
Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for the moment but recent rise is expected to resume sooner rather than later with 113.18 minor support intact. Current rally from 100.32, which is part of the rise from 94.11, should target 161.8% projection of 94.11 to 104.58 from 100.32 at 117.26 next. Though, break of 113.18 will indicate short-term topping, on bearish divergence conditions in 4 hour MACD, and bring deeper pull back.
In the bigger picture, the strong break of 111.43 resistance should have confirmed long term trend reversal in EUR/JPY. That is, whole down trend from 169.96 (2008 high) has completed at 94.11 already, on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. A medium term rally is now expected that heads back to 123.31 (38.2% retracement of 169.96 to 94.11 at 123.08) and above. And, we'll stay bullish as long as 104.58 resistance turned support holds.
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