GBP/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 172.70; (P) 173.07; (R1) 173.53;
As noted before, GBP/JPY could have topped at 174.09 already. And, more importantly, the cross could be starting another falling leg inside the medium term sideway pattern from 174.84. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 170.95 support first. Break will target 169.53 and below. Meanwhile, in case of another rise, we'd remain cautious on strong resistance from 174.84 to bring reversal to extend the medium term sideway pattern.
In the bigger picture, the up trend from 116.83 (2011 low) might still extend to above 174.84. Nonetheless, upside momentum is rather unconvincing as seen in weekly MACD. Thus, even in that case, we'd expect strong resistance from 50% retracement retracement of 251.09 to 116.83 at 183.96 to limit upside. Meanwhile, sustained break of 163.87 support should confirm medium term topping at 174.84 and bring deeper correction to 147.61/156.77 support zone next.
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 137.96; (P) 138.39; (R1) 138.87;
EUR/JPY is staying above 137.71 and intraday bias remains neutral. More sideway trading could be seen. Near term outlook remains bearish as long as 140.09 resistance holds. The cross is in the third leg of the pattern from 145.68. Break of 137.71 will target 136.22 support next. On the upside, break of 140.09 will indicate near term reversal and turn bias back to the upside for 143.78 resistance.
In the bigger picture, loss of upside momentum was seen in bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD. However, EUR/JPY is so far holding above 135.50 key support. Thus, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet. Break of 145.68 will extend the up trend from 94.11 towards 76.4% retracement of 169.96 to 94.11 at 152.59 before topping. Meanwhile, break of 135.50 will confirm reversal and target 124.95 support.
