Gold went on a roller coaster ride yesterday following the surprise announcement by the ECB of a 0.25% interest rate reduction. As expected, the dollar soared on the news whilst the Euro plummeted, however the reaction in gold was more interesting.
Initially, the price rose following the announcement in a counter intuitive move (probably fishing for stops above 1322), however the price soon reversed sharply, falling below 1300 briefly before recovering to close at 1308.
Gold is currently trading around 1312, though the direction over the next few weeks will be determined by the dollar - a close above 81 will confirm that the dollar bulls are back in charge and should see gold decline, whilst a failure to build on last week's gains will give the dollar bears some confidence.
Gold is now back below all of the major moving averages on the daily chart, with the 50, 100 and 200 DMAs all pointing downwards again. The price is also back below the 20 week moving average.
The gold bulls will want to hold above 1300 and look to take out yesterday's reaction high at 1326 whilst the bears will be gunning for yesterday's 1297 low and a close below 1300 to end the week.
The Non Farms Payroll Number (NFP) is set for release at 1.30pm UK time and could see more volatility, with a low number expected due to the effect of the government shutdown last month - it will be interesting to see how much the shutdown affected private sector hiring, with a strong NFP jobs number bearish for gold and a weak number bullish.
The expectations are for a low number, with the consensus forecast a paltry 100,000 jobs added in October.
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Friday’s Gold-Market Update
Published 11/08/2013, 06:43 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM
Friday’s Gold-Market Update
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