Forget Stocks, Bonds Are Warning About What’s Coming

www.investing.com/analysis/forget-stocks-bonds-are-warning-whats-coming-200355958

By Phoenix Capital Research | Nov 07, 2018 12:01AM ET

Saved. See Saved Items.

This article has already been saved in your Saved Items

DE10Y...

+0.35%

Add to/Remove from Watchlist

US10Y...

-1.93%

Add to/Remove from Watchlist

JP10Y...

-3.11%

Add to/Remove from Watchlist

Yesterday was election day in the US. As results continue to come in voters in the United States are deciding which political party controls Congress.

From the perspective of the financial markets, it doesn’t matter. Regardless of whether Congress is controlled by Democrats or Republicans, the bull market in stocks is OVER. Yes we might get a bit of a rally based on the market digesting results, but THE TOP is in for stocks.

That’s actually the good news. The BAD NEWS is that the US financial system might enter a crisis in 2019.

The bond market continues to blow up with yields on the ALL-IMPORTANT 10-year US Treasury retesting their recent highs. Bear in mind, this is happening at a time when the US is planning a $1.3 TRILLION deficit next year and will be relying HEAVILY on the debt markets to fund this.

UST10Y Monthly Chart

By the way, this is a global phenomenon with bond yields breaking out in Germany and Japan as well.

German:Japan 10-Y Yields 2009-2018

This is a MASSIVE deal. This is effectively the bond markets telling entire countries that if they want to issue debt, it’s going to cost them more. And this is happening PRECISELY when these very same countries are planning on both issuing AND rolling over ENORMOUS amounts of debt.

Again… 2019 will be when the next crisis hits.

Why Investors Are Eyeing Telegram’s 9.4% Yield Bonds By Julia Khandoshko - Feb 18, 2025

Telegram Group Inc. is a globally recognized messaging service company, offering a cloud-based mobile and desktop messaging application. Known for its strong focus on security,...

Why Actively Managed Funds May Offer Substantial Advantages for Bond... By David Rosenstrock - Feb 07, 2025

Many investors regard passively managed index mutual funds or ETFs as favorable options for stock investing. However, they may also find that actively managed funds offer...

Falling Bond Yields Suggest Growth Concerns Outweigh Inflation Risks By James Picerno - Feb 05, 2025 3

President Trump’s comments and executive orders have roiled markets and investor expectations, but from the vantage of the Treasury market, a relative calm prevails. This could...

Add a Comment

We encourage you to use comments to engage with other users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind:

Enrich the conversation, don’t trash it.
Stay focused and on track. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed.
Be respectful. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically. Avoid profanity, slander or personal attacks directed at an author or another user. Racism, sexism and other forms of discrimination will not be tolerated.
Use standard writing style. Include punctuation and upper and lower cases. Comments that are written in all caps and contain excessive use of symbols will be removed.
NOTE: Spam and/or promotional messages and comments containing links will be removed. Phone numbers, email addresses, links to personal or business websites, Skype/Telegram/WhatsApp etc. addresses (including links to groups) will also be removed; self-promotional material or business-related solicitations or PR (ie, contact me for signals/advice etc.), and/or any other comment that contains personal contact specifcs or advertising will be removed as well. In addition, any of the above-mentioned violations may result in suspension of your account.
Doxxing. We do not allow any sharing of private or personal contact or other information about any individual or organization. This will result in immediate suspension of the commentor and his or her account.
Don’t monopolize the conversation. We appreciate passion and conviction, but we also strongly believe in giving everyone a chance to air their point of view. Therefore, in addition to civil interaction, we expect commenters to offer their opinions succinctly and thoughtfully, but not so repeatedly that others are annoyed or offended. If we receive complaints about individuals who take over a thread or forum, we reserve the right to ban them from the site, without recourse.
Only English comments will be allowed.
Any comment you publish, together with your investing.com profile, will be public on investing.com and may be indexed and available through third party search engines, such as Google.

Perpetrators of spam or abuse will be deleted from the site and prohibited from future registration at Investing.com’s discretion.

I have read Investing.com's comments guidelines and agree to the terms described.

I Agree

Write your thoughts here

Are you sure you want to delete this chart?

Delete Cancel

Post

Post also to:

Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?

Replace Cancel

1000

Comment Guidelines

Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.

Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.

Thanks for your comment. Please note that all comments are pending until approved by our moderators. It may therefore take some time before it appears on our website.

Comments (1)

tony massabni Nov 07, 2018 8:12AM ET

Follow this post

Unfollow this post

Save

Saved. See Saved Items.

This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items

Block User

10-Year Bunds at 43-45 basis points, you call that a breakout?. 10-Year Treasuries unable to hold 3,20%? And headed lower and if they even if they do manage to creep up to 3,30 they will roll over to 3,10.. Inflation is off the radar screen in Europe. Hardly an issue in the US.

1 0

Report

<div id="comment">
				<div class="comment js-comment" data-comment-id="{commentID}" id="comment-{commentID}" data-user-id="201282604">
    <div class="mainComment js-content">
       <div class="commentInnerWrapper">
        <a href="{userLink}" class="js-user-link"><img src="{userImage}" width="33" height="33" alt="{usernameAlt}" class="img" onerror="this.src='https://i-invdn-com.investing.com/defaultUserMaleTmp.png';"></a><div class="commentBody">
                					<span class="commentUsername">
                    	<a href="{userLink}" class="js-user-link js-user-name">{username}</a>
					</span>
                                <span class="js-date" comment-date="{dateFormat}" comment-date-formatted="{dateFormatted}" title="{dateTitle}">Just Now</span>
                <div class="commentDropDown js-commentDropDownWrapper " data-user-id="201282604" data-cid="{commentID}">
	<a href="javascript:void(0);" class="threeDotsIconSmall js-thinDropdownArrow"></a>
	<div class="tooltipPopup commentActionsPop noHeader js-commentDropDownOptions displayNone">
		<div class="addRow js-option share">
			<a href="javascript:void(0);" class="js-commentSharePopup" data-cid="{commentID}" data-curl="{commentLink}"><span class="smallShareIcon middle"></span>Share</a>
		</div>

<div class="js-option addRow follow">
            <div class="js-follow-post-button" data-reg_ep="follow comment">
                <span class="alertfollowIcon middle"></span>Follow this post            </div>
            <div class="js-unfollow-post-button displayNoneImp">
                <span class="alertUnfollowIcon middle"></span>Unfollow this post            </div>
        </div>

<div class="addRow js-option save"  data-reg_ep="save comment">
		<a href="javascript:void(0);" class="js-save-item-btn" data-item-type="comments" data-item-id="{commentID}">
			<i class="saveItemBigIcon middle"></i>
			Save		</a>
	</div>
	<div class="addRow saveItemsConfirmation noHover displayNone js-saveItemResult">
		
<div class="content js-saveItemSuccess displayNone">
	<span class="mediumGreenSuccessIcon"></span><span>Saved. See <a href="/members-admin/saved-items" target="_blank">Saved Items</a>.</span>
	<a href="javascript:void(0);" class="bugCloseIcon js-close"></a>
</div>
<div class="content js-saveItemAlreadySaved saveItemAlreadySaved displayNoneImp">
	<span>This comment has already been saved in your <a href="/members-admin/saved-items" target="_blank">Saved Items</a></span>
	<a href="javascript:void(0);" class="bugCloseIcon js-close"></a>
</div>
	</div>

<div class="addRow js-option blockUser js-block-option" data-comment-id="{commentID}"  data-user-id="201282604" data-reg_ep="block user comments">
			<a href="javascript:void(0);">
				<span class="blockIcon middle"></span>Block User			</a>
		</div>
				<div class="addRow shareButtons js-sharePopup displayNone">
			<div class="js-shareComment"><span class="js-shareCommentSpan"></span></div>
		</div>
	</div>
</div>
                 <div class="commentAuthor js-comment-by-author"><span class="commentAuthorIcon"></span>Author's response</div>             </div>
		<div id="commentText-{commentID}" class="js-text-wrapper commentText withImage">
							<div id="commentBigChart{commentID}" class="commentBigChart js-comment-chart" onclick="openViewChartPopup('{commentID}')">
					<img src="https://d1-invdn-com.investing.com/comments_images/{commentImage}" alt="{commentAlt}">
					<i class="newMagnifyChartIcon"></i>
				</div>
						<span class="js-text">{commentContent}</span>
			<div class="clear"></div>
							<div class="commentButtons js-not-master-user">
					<a href="javascript:void(0)" class="reply js-reply-btn" data-real-parent-id="{commentID}" data-to-user-name="{username}" data-to-user-id="201282604">Reply</a>
					<div class="inlineblock likeDislikeBox js-like-dislike-box" data-item-id="{commentID}">
	<input class="js-like-checkbox" type="checkbox" name="option" value="Yes" id="like_{commentID}">
	<label for="like_{commentID}" class="like" title="I agree"></label>
	<span class="numOfLikes js-like-count lighterGrayFont">0</span>
	<input class="js-dislike-checkbox" type="checkbox" name="option" value="No" id="dislike_{commentID}">
	<label for="dislike_{commentID}" class="dislike" title="I disagree"></label>
	<span class="numOfDislikes js-dislike-count lighterGrayFont">0</span>
</div>

<div class="reportComment js-flag float_lang_base_2">
                            <a href="javascript:void(0);" id="commentFlag_{commentID}">
                                <span class="reportCommentIcon middle"></span><span class="inlineblock middle">Report</span>
                            </a>
                        </div>
                    				</div>
					</div>
	   </div>
	</div>
	</div>			</div>
			<div id="reply">
				
    <div class="commentReply js-comment js-comment-reply" data-comment-id="{commentID}" id="comment-{commentID}" data-user-id="">
		<div class="commentInnerWrapper"><a href="{userLink}" class="js-user-link"><img src="{userImage}" width="33" height="33" alt="{usernameAlt}" class="img" onerror="this.src='https://i-invdn-com.investing.com/defaultUserMaleTmp.png';"></a><div class="commentBody js-content">
            				<span class="commentUsername">
					<a href="{userLink}" class="commentUsername js-user-link js-user-name" onMouseOver="">{username}</a>
				</span>
                        <span class="js-date" comment-date="{dateFormat}" comment-date-formatted="{dateFormatted}" title="{dateTitle}">Just Now</span>
			 <div class="commentAuthor js-comment-by-author"><span class="commentAuthorIcon"></span>Author's response</div> 			<div class="commentDropDown js-commentDropDownWrapper " data-user-id="" data-cid="{commentID}">
	<a href="javascript:void(0);" class="threeDotsIconSmall js-thinDropdownArrow"></a>
	<div class="tooltipPopup commentActionsPop noHeader js-commentDropDownOptions displayNone">
		<div class="addRow js-option share">
			<a href="javascript:void(0);" class="js-commentSharePopup" data-cid="{commentID}" data-curl="{commentLink}"><span class="smallShareIcon middle"></span>Share</a>
		</div>

</div>
		<div id="commentText-{commentID}" class="js-text-wrapper commentText withImage">
							<div id="commentBigChart{commentID}" class="replyBigChart displayNone js-comment-chart">
					<img src="https://d1-invdn-com.investing.com/comments_images/{commentImage}" alt="{commentAlt}">
					<i class="newMagnifyChartIcon"></i>
				</div>
				<span id="commentSmallChart{commentID}" class="commentSmallChart pointer js-comment-chart" onclick="openViewChartPopup('{commentID}')">
                    <img src="https://d1-invdn-com.investing.com/comments_images/{commentImageSmall}" width="116" height="52" alt="{commentAlt}">
                    <span class="chartMagnifyOverlay displayNone"></span>
                    <span class="searchGlassIcon chartMagnify displayNone"></span>
                </span>
						<span class="js-text">{commentContent}</span>
			<div class="clear"></div>
							<div class="commentButtons js-not-master-user">
					<a href="javascript:void(0)" class="reply js-reply-btn" data-real-parent-id="{commentID}" data-to-user-name="{username}" data-to-user-id="">Reply</a>
					<div class="inlineblock likeDislikeBox js-like-dislike-box" data-item-id="{commentID}">
	<input class="js-like-checkbox" type="checkbox" name="option" value="Yes" id="like_{commentID}">
	<label for="like_{commentID}" class="like" title="I agree"></label>
	<span class="numOfLikes js-like-count lighterGrayFont">0</span>
	<input class="js-dislike-checkbox" type="checkbox" name="option" value="No" id="dislike_{commentID}">
	<label for="dislike_{commentID}" class="dislike" title="I disagree"></label>
	<span class="numOfDislikes js-dislike-count lighterGrayFont">0</span>
</div>

Are you sure you want to delete this chart?

Delete Cancel

Post

Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?

Replace Cancel

1000

Comment Guidelines

Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.

Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.

I feel that this comment is:

Spam

Offensive

Thank You!

Your report has been sent to our moderators for review

Central Banks

Interest Rates

Next Meeting

FED

4.50%

Mar 19, 2025

ECB

2.90%

Mar 06, 2025

BOE

4.50%

Mar 20, 2025

SNB

0.50%

Mar 20, 2025

RBA

4.10%

Apr 01, 2025

BOC

3.00%

Mar 12, 2025

RBNZ

3.75%

Apr 09, 2025

BOJ

0.50%

Mar 19, 2025

CBR

21.00%

Mar 21, 2025

RBI

6.25%

Mar 10, 2025

PBOC

3.10%

BCB

13.25%

Mar 19, 2025

US 30	43,587.2	+125.3	+0.29%
US 500	5,960.3	-23.2	-0.39%
Dow Jones	43,585.97	+124.76	+0.29%
S&P 500	5,960.50	-22.99	-0.38%
Nasdaq	19,069.57	-217.36	-1.13%
S&P 500 VIX	19.45	+0.47	+2.48%
Dollar Index	106.235	-0.274	-0.26%

Crude Oil WTI	68.92	-1.78	-2.52%
Brent Oil	72.49	-1.82	-2.45%
Natural Gas	4.110	+0.128	+3.21%
Gold	2,922.41	-40.79	-1.38%
Silver	31.883	-0.721	-2.21%
Copper	4.5330	-0.0305	-0.67%
US Soybeans	1,030.25	+1.25	+0.12%

U.S. 10Y	4.308	-0.085	-1.93%
U.S. 30Y	4.565	-0.084	-1.81%
U.S. 5Y	4.145	-0.085	-2.01%
U.S. 3M	4.292	-0.007	-0.16%
US 10Y T-Note	110.41	+0.53	+0.48%
Euro Bund	132.41	+0.57	+0.44%
10-2 Yield Spread	22.59	-0.34	-1.48%

Apple	248.13	+1.03	+0.42%
Alphabet A	177.08	-2.17	-1.21%
Tesla	300.74	-29.79	-9.01%
Amazon.com	210.80	-1.91	-0.90%
Netflix	972.74	-15.74	-1.59%
Meta Platforms	661.16	-6.97	-1.04%
Bank of America	43.94	-0.52	-1.17%

Forget Stocks, Bonds Are Warning About What’s Coming

Related Articles