In the Currency Strength table the USD was again the strongest currency for the third month while the AUD was the weakest. The AUD made a dive last month from 6 to 1 and is this month in the range of the weak currencies. The CAD increased from 4 to 7 points being now in the range of the strong currencies. All of the currencies remained around the level of the previous week with a maximum difference of 2 points.
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12 Months Currency Score Strength
The 12 Months Currency Strength and the 12 Months Average are provided here below. This data and the "12 months Currency Classification" are considered for deciding on the preferred range. Because it is not ideal nor desired to change the range for a currency every single month, we perform several checks to avoid this.
- First of all, the strength over a period of 12 months. See each row for more information.
- Then the 12 months average, see the last row called "Avg. 12 M."
- The number of months that a currency is stronger than another currency can also be evaluated.
- The TA Charts for each time frame can also be consulted.
For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer term perspective the last 12 months Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 30 September 2016 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: USD, JPY, NZD. The preferred range is from 6 to 8.
Neutral: AUD, CHF. The preferred range is from 4 to 5.
Weak: EUR, GBP, CAD. The preferred range is from 1 to 3.
All the currencies are within their classification when using the Avg. 12 M. Although the JPY is in a dip for the second month, this does not have any effect on the Avg. 12 months Currency Score. The JPY remains the strongest currency in this overview.
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The Strong Currencies
All the weak currencies are bouncing from the lows and the CAD is the strongest one. As can be seen in the chart below, this currency had in the past several attempts to break out of the lower range but it did not succeed. The CAD was in the last 12 months almost always in the range of the neutral and weak currencies.
If the currency remains strong in the coming period and the Average 12 Months has a value similar to the AUD and CHF, it may become a neutral currency. The short rally of the EUR and GBP in the last months is of low significance when looking at a longer period.
Below you can see the Monthly Currency Score Chart with 24 months data as a reference.
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Currency Score Comparison
"Comparison table" and the "Ranking and Rating list"
The Forex Currency Comparison Table compares each currency with its counterpart based on the Currency Score. For more information about the currency Score of this month you can read the article "Forex Ranking, Rating and Score" which is published every month together with this article.
By using the comparison table directly below, you can get a view without the volatility and statistics as opposed to the "Ranking and Rating list". Only the strength of each currency against the counterparts is analyzed by using the technical analysis charts of the 3 time frames that are also used for the "Ranking and Rating List".
The information from the Comparison Table is the source for calculating the "Ranking and Rating List" where this list additionally uses the volatility and statistics for creating the best and worst performer in the list from number 1 to 28.
"Comparison table" and the "Currency Score Chart"
The additional value of this table compared to the Currency Score table is that the Comparison Table compares the strength between the currencies of each pair. By subtracting the strength of the weaker currency from the stronger currency we have a way to compare each pair combination.
The comparison table provides a way to compare currencies from a longer term perspective of 12 months and also simultaneously taking the current trend into account. By coloring the currencies in the X and Y axis according to their Classification we can show what the best combinations are. In doing this we apply 2 rules to make it clearer.
- First of all, only better classified currencies in combination with weaker classified currencies are "Approved" when there is a Currency Score difference of at least 1 in the current month.
- The only exception is when 2 currencies are similarly classified, but the Currency Score difference is equal to or more than 4.
- It means that each currency should be as far apart from each other as possible in the range from 1 to 8. The classification of the currencies in question may change in the longer term. By using the difference of 4, which is exact the half of the range, it seems a safe approach for trading 2 currencies which are similarly classified.
- Even though currencies may be in the same classification, a currency may be in a weaker/stronger period and may even change its classification in the future. See the current classification for the coming period at the beginning of this article.
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Putting the pieces together
Based on the last "12 Months currency classification" and the "Currency Comparison Table" the most interesting currencies for going long seem to be the:
USD, CHF and NZD.
These are strong or neutral currencies from a longer term perspective when looking at the last "12 Months currency classification".
For going short the same analysis can be done and the following currencies seem to fit best:
AUD, EUR and GBP.
These are weak or neutral currencies from a longer term perspective.
Currencies with a high deviation seem less interesting to trade because they are less predictable. A good example at the moment is e.g. the:
CAD, JPY and AUD.
Some of the pairs in the "Currency Comparison Table" comply for a longer term trade based on the Technical Analysis (TA) of the daily and monthly chart. For the coming month these seem to be: GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, GBP/CAD, EUR/USD and AUD/NZD
.
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DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk is always yours. Thank you.