Forex Speculators Added To Total Bullish USD Contracts Last Week

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators added to their overall US dollar bullish bets last week after a decline the previous week.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, increased overall US dollar positions to a total of +345,633 contracts as of Tuesday October 28th, according to the latest data from the CFTC. This was a weekly change of +15,678 contracts from the total of +329,955 contracts that was reported as of Tuesday October 21st. This total US dollar contracts calculation is derived by adding the sum of each individual currencies net position versus the dollar. Currency contracts used in the calculation are the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Mexican peso.

The US Dollar’s total bullish contracts position is at the highest level all year and all the tracked currencies have net bearish position versus the US dollar for a 4th consecutive week.

Major Currency Weekly Levels & Changes: One Sided – All currencies have net bearish position versus the USD for 4th week

Overall changes on the week for the major currencies showed that large speculators increased their bets last week in favor of the Japanese yen and the Canadian dollar while decreasing weekly bets for the euro, British pound sterling, Swiss franc, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Mexican Peso.

Notable changes on the week for the Major Currencies:

• Euro positions deteriorated further for a 4th straight week and to a new lowest level in the downturn. The EUR/USD exchange rate declined later in the week to end the week down by approximately -1.14% and closed just above the 1.2500 level

• British pound sterling positions fell last week for a 4th week and overall positions remain slightly bearish (-6,247). The GBP/USD spot exchange rate ended the week below the 1.6000 level for the first time in four weeks

• Japanese yen bets increased slightly last week and rose for a 4th week. Yen positions are now at the least bearish level since July 22nd. The yen, however, got hammered to end the week as the Bank of Japan surprised the market by expanding its QE program

• Swiss franc bets fell last week for a 3rd weekly decline. The Franc positions (-20,283) are now at the lowest level since June 2013

• Canadian dollar positions edged higher last week after falling for six weeks to the most bearish level since June 10th. The USD/CAD exchange rate ended the week a little higher with the rate still just hovering above the 1.1200 major level

• Australian dollar net positions dropped for an eighth week last week to a new most bearish Aussie position since March. The AUD/USD finished the week virtually unchanged (+0.07%) with prices just below the 0.8800 level

• New Zealand dollar net positions declined slightly last week (-1,566 contracts) and positions remain slightly bearish overall. The NZD/USD declined for a second week by approximately -0.84% to end the week below the 0.7800 level

• Mexican peso positions decreased last week for a 2nd week and fell to the most bearish level since February 11th. The peso spec positions have been on the bearish side now for five straight weeks

This latest COT data is through Tuesday October 28th and shows a quick view of how large speculators and for-profit traders (non-commercials) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data points below.

Weekly Charts: Large Speculators Weekly Positions vs Currency Spot Price

EuroFX:

Last Six Weeks data for EuroFX futures

British Pound Sterling:

Last Six Weeks data for Pound Sterling futures

Japanese Yen:

Last Six Weeks data for Yen Futures

Swiss Franc:

Last Six Weeks data for Franc futures

Canadian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Canadian dollar futures

Australian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Australian dollar futures

New Zealand Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for New Zealand dollar futures

Mexican Peso:

Last Six Weeks data for Mexican Peso futures

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.