EUR/USD:
EUR/USD" title="EUR/USD" width="715" height="518">EUR/USD:
1.3195
Short-Term Trend: weak downtrend
Outlook:
EUR rose ot 1.3320 last week only to touch the 100-day moving average and pulled back. The fact that the prices remain below the declining 100-day moving average is a sign that the weak downtrend on the daily chart is still intact. And since the market is overbought, the trending conditions do favor a short position here. On the other hand, our wave coung suggests a rally twd 1.3520/1.3720 should be under way. When we have such conflicting messages from the trend-following methodology and from the wave count, it is best to be more deffensive. Since we are already long, that means it makes sense to tighten the stop.
Strategy: Holding long from 1.2900 is favored. Stop below1.3100. Target=1.3700.
GBP/USD:
GBP/USD: " title="GBP/USD: " width="715" height="518">
GBP/USD: 1.5752
Short-Term Trend: sideways
Outlook:
Honestly I am suprised how well GBP has followed our main scenario here. The confidence in the presented wave structure is still extremely low, but so far the pair follows it, so we have to continue to follow it. With that in mind, one can favor the short side here as our analysis suggests weakness twd 1.5260.
On the upside, abv 1.5945 negates and signals a rise twd 1.61/1.62 is under way....
Strategy: Shorts favored here against 1.5950.
USD/JPY:
USD/JPY: 77.59
Short-Term Trend: sideways
Outlook:
Contrary to my expectations USD rallied last week. Now, the daily chart is a mess. The wave count is unclear. However, I still think that the current sideways move on the daily chart will eventually be followed by a strong decline. Why? - Because the downtrend on the weekly chart remains intact. However, if a move abv 78.30 develops, the daily chart will turn positive and that will suggest gains twd at least 80.00...
Strategy:The hypothetical long from 76.50 was stopped out at 77.50. Stand aside.