ADP or Automatic Data Processing (NASDAQ:ADP) is releasing it´s own estimate for the private sectors of NFP (Nonfarm Payroll). This is a high impact release and it´s followed by currency traders as they look for hints on Friday´s NFP official release. Here´s the forecast:
8:15am NY Time US ADP NFP Change Forecast 130K Previous 110K
ACTION: 180K BUY USD/JPY / 80K BUY EUR/USD
The Trade Plan
I usually don´t trade this release but I use it for future trend references. However, if the deviation of 50K is actually hit, the market probably wont have a problem pushing it, and this will undoubtedly change market perception for the NFP release; therefore its best to be around your computer during the release time rather than find out what happened hours later and potentially miss the entire movement.
With the above being said, we´ll be looking for a deviation of 50K, so if we get 180K or better release, I´d be looking to BUY USD/JPY (BOJ Possible Intervention); if we get a 80K or worse, then I´d be looking to BUY EUR/USD… I will also recommend to look at my strength meter and find the best currency against the USD pending the actual data.
The Market
Once again market is expecting a moderate private payroll growth as reflected in the forecast today. With this being the last NFP for the year, certainly some volatility is expected if we get a stronger than expected release. Although the market trend is expected to remain generally unchanged from now until the end of the year, a stronger than expected release should definitely move the USD for a short while.
With Private payrolls still struggling, although improving somewhat at 145K versus 104K in October as forecasted by Bloomberg for the NFP release on Friday, today’s ADP should be right around target.
Additional Thoughts
The ADP NFP Employment Release is always considered as a high impact release because ADP is the largest private payroll processing provider in the U.S., traders in general pay more attention to this release, especially during NFP week. ADP usually releases its version of Non-Farm Payroll numbers before the actual NFP based on it´s proprietary private payroll data.
8:15am NY Time US ADP NFP Change Forecast 130K Previous 110K
ACTION: 180K BUY USD/JPY / 80K BUY EUR/USD
The Trade Plan
I usually don´t trade this release but I use it for future trend references. However, if the deviation of 50K is actually hit, the market probably wont have a problem pushing it, and this will undoubtedly change market perception for the NFP release; therefore its best to be around your computer during the release time rather than find out what happened hours later and potentially miss the entire movement.
With the above being said, we´ll be looking for a deviation of 50K, so if we get 180K or better release, I´d be looking to BUY USD/JPY (BOJ Possible Intervention); if we get a 80K or worse, then I´d be looking to BUY EUR/USD… I will also recommend to look at my strength meter and find the best currency against the USD pending the actual data.
The Market
Once again market is expecting a moderate private payroll growth as reflected in the forecast today. With this being the last NFP for the year, certainly some volatility is expected if we get a stronger than expected release. Although the market trend is expected to remain generally unchanged from now until the end of the year, a stronger than expected release should definitely move the USD for a short while.
With Private payrolls still struggling, although improving somewhat at 145K versus 104K in October as forecasted by Bloomberg for the NFP release on Friday, today’s ADP should be right around target.
Additional Thoughts
The ADP NFP Employment Release is always considered as a high impact release because ADP is the largest private payroll processing provider in the U.S., traders in general pay more attention to this release, especially during NFP week. ADP usually releases its version of Non-Farm Payroll numbers before the actual NFP based on it´s proprietary private payroll data.