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FX Markets In Breakout Mode

Published 09/02/2015, 08:57 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM
EUR/USD
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USD/CAD
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EUR/CAD
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The forex markets were in trading ranges overnight and those who trade forex markets for a living were either waiting for a breakout or scalping with limit orders. This means that the markets are in breakout mode. For example, in the EUR/USD, they might buy every new low, risk 20 – 20 pips, scale in 10 pips lower, and scalp for 10 pips. If they add on, they might get out breakeven on their first entry and with 10 pips profit on their second.

One of the forex crosses with the potential for traders learning how to trade the markets is still the USD/CAD (or the EUR/CAD). The daily chart has been in a broad bull channel for a month, late in a bull trend, and it is likely going to transition into a trading range. A bull channel is basically a bear flag and there is a 70% chance it will soon have a bear breakout. There is only a 30% chance of a successful bull breakout and then an even stronger bull trend. Once it breaks below the bull trend line, it will then typically have two legs sideways to down, lasting 10 or more bars (days).

The 60-minute chart had a wedge rally over the past 24 hours and the rally might be a lower high major trend reversal. Traders will be looking to for a sell setup. A good one would have about a 40% chance of a swing down. Other traders prefer high probability. They will wait for the bear breakout and then short. They will have a 60% chance of a profitable swing trade, but their stop will be further away. All trading is always a trade-off between probability and risk/reward. If one side has higher probability, the institution on the other side has better risk/reward.

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