We haven’t looked at currency cross-rates in a while and I think it’s particularly germane in this gee-what-will-the-trade-war-do environment we’re stuck in. It seems to me the Chinese currency is going to continue to be quite weak about its centuries-old enemy of Japan:
CNY/JPY
Jumping to the other side of the planet, the euro has been grinding lower for years against the U.S. dollar. I suspect this will continue for years to come, as Europe will be in even more pathetic shape than our once-great republic.
EUR/USD
Lastly, and most timely, my view is that the dollar will continue to appreciate against the Chinese yuan. If the trade deal is as big a debacle as I’ve been predicting for months, this should shoot higher once all the bluster and spin are out of the way.
USD/CNY
