The rally in the U.S. Dollar was pressuring the September Euro this morning. After trading sideways-to-lower earlier the week, the Euro accelerated to the downside after the release of the FOMC minutes from June late Wednesday.
The report showed that the Fed was not strongly considering additional stimulus at its last meeting and that additional stimulus will probably not implemented unless the economy shows significant signs of weakness.
The news triggered a flight-to-safety rally into the U.S. Dollar after traders abandoned higher risk assets. With hopes of additional stimulus fading, the dollar is expected to continue to rise over the near-term, pushing the Euro closer to its June 2010 bottom at 1.1876.
The Weekly Nearby Euro chart clearly shows the market walking down a Gann angle from the 1.4925 top from a year ago. Additionally, the single currency has crossed over to the bearish side of a channel-down chart pattern indicating weakness.
The weekly swing chart is down and a new swing top has been formed at 1.2759. A move through this level will turn the main trend to up, but the chances of this occurring are remote at this time.
The Fed will meet next on July 31 -- August 1. If they are watching the economy for weakness, traders should pay close attention to this month’s remaining economic reports. In addition, traders should continue to monitor interest rates in Spain and Italy as rising rates could accelerate the move to the downside.