Market movers today
Euro PMIs are due for release and it will be interesting to see whether the improvement in the financial ZEW expectations is mirrored in the PMIs. The manufacturing PMI seems to lag the ZEW expectations a bit and we stick to our expectation of a decline as the order-inventory balance weakened in October. On the other hand, the service PMI should remain at the current level. Euro consumer confidence is also released and we expect it have gone slightly higher after it increased marginally in October. Finally, ECB's Mersch will speak at 15:30 CET.
In the US the Markit PMI manufacturing is due for release and in line with the euro figure we look for a slight decline as the order-inventory balance in October points to more downside this month.
US headline CPI is expected to fall 0.1% m/m, leading to an annual inflation rate of 1.6% y/y. For core CPI, we expect a rise of 0.1% m/m, below consensus of 0.2% m/m, which should keep the annual rate unchanged at 1.7%. Inflation pressures are generally low, as commodity prices are declining and wage increases are moderate.
US existing home sales is also due for release and we expect a small decline as pending home sales, which is a good leading indicator, have declined. Finally, US initial jobless claims are released.
Norwegian Q3 GDP data is released today.
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