Flash Comment: The Italian Market Panic - Drivers And Near-term Outlook

Published 05/30/2018, 03:02 AM

Summary points:

The Italian bond sell-off reached unprecedented levels yesterday and is starting to have significant global ramifications as we saw during the euro debt crisis in 2012.

The current market panic is a reflection of several drivers, including possible continuing Italian political vacuum, poor market liquidity as well as fears over the lack of rescue options in case of a full-fledged Italian debt crisis.

The likely failure to appoint an interim government may result in new elections or alternatively the immediate appointment of the Five Star/League government but with strings attached from the president to their policy programme.

We continue to stay sidelined for now in respect to BTP exposure - it may be tempting to add a short BTP future but taking the ultra-high volatility into account, the risk adjusted return is not attractive.

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