Swedish April inflation is usually not a particularly volatile event and this time is no exception. We expect both CPI and CPIF to print 0.1% m/m. Looking at the inflation rates, we expect a bottom this or next month and a gradual rise over the next two years to still quite modest levels.
In April upward price pressure is likely to come mainly from the clothing, rent and transportation components, adding about 0.2pp altogether. Downward pressure stems mainly from lower mortgage rates and falling petrol/diesel prices, pulling down by 0.1pp in total. In our view, risks are quite balanced.
Comparing to Riksbank’s April forecasts there isn’t really much to say, we have exactly the same for both CPI and CPIF. Hence, at least for now there is nothing to suggest that there will be renewed divergences that could affect Riksbank’s rate decision. As can be seen below though, we still expect less inflation than Riksbank over the coming years.
To Read the Entire Report Please Click on the pdf File Below.