We make up a weekly medium-term trade list based on CFTC reports and technical analysis.
The table below provides a description of the technical condition of the market on the most popular financial instruments, as well as information on the large speculators’ actions according to the last COT reports and the previous period.
If you want to use CFTC reports in your trading practice, you should understand that for an objective assessment of the situation it’s not enough to know the data of the last report. The dynamic is more important, in other words, comparing the statistics of large speculators’ actions in the current period with the previous one, so we publish both values in the table.
E-Mini S&P500 (ESZ17)
The trend is bullish, the impulse wave develops. A pullback entry point on the Daily timeframe will appear after another correction formation. At the same time the price movement is very active that’s why the reliable market entry is also possible on smaller timeframes. COT net position indicator goes on rising and large speculators continue to buy.
The trend is bearish. The market is around the resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of October 17-18. A pullback signal from this level will most likely appear within next week or it will be broken, the trend will change and a breakout signal will be formed. Anyway this asset may be interesting for medium-term trading. COT net position indicator reversed, large speculators are selling and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.
EURO (EUR/USD)
The trend is bullish. The market is around the support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of October 17-18. A pullback buying opportunity from this level will most likely appear within next week or it will be broken, the trend will change and a breakout signal will be formed. Anyway this asset may be interesting for medium-term trading.
COT net position indicator decreased but didn’t reverse, so major players’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.
Swiss Franc (USD/CHF)
The trend is bullish (for USD/CHF), another impulse wave develops. A pullback entry point on the Daily timeframe will appear after the correction formation. Large speculators go on selling franc and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.
British Pound (GBP/USD)
The Daily trend is bearish, the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after its completion and a full-fledged correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of October 13-16.
COT net position indicator reversed, large speculators are selling and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY)
The Daily trend is bullish (for USD/JPY), another correction came to an end last week, the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after its completion and a full-fledged correction formation. USD/JPY long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of October 13-16.
Large speculators are selling Yen and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.
WTI Crude Oil (CLZ17)
The Daily trend is bullish, the correction wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after its completion.
COT net position indicator increased but didn’t reverse and the major players’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the market technical picture and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.
Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD)
The trend is bullish (for USD/CAD). Another high was broken last week and the impulse wave develops. USD/CAD pullback buying opportunity will appear after a full-fledged correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of October 18-19.
COT net position indicator decreased but didn’t reverse so the major players’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the market technical picture.
Gold (XAU/USD)
The Daily trend is bearish, the correction came to an end last week and the impulse wave develops. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the highs of October 13-17.
COT net position indicator decreases and the large speculators’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.
Silver (XAG/USD)
The trend is bullish. The market is around the support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of October 17-19. A pullback buying opportunity from this level will most likely appear within next week or it will be broken, the trend will change and a breakout signal will be formed. Anyway this asset may be interesting for medium-term trading.
COT net position indicator reversed, large speculators are buying and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.
Australian Dollar (AUD/USD)
The trend is bullish. The market is around the support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of October 17-18. A pullback buying opportunity from this level will most likely appear within next week or it will be broken, the trend will change and a breakout selling opportunity will be formed. Anyway this asset may be interesting for medium-term trading.
COT net position indicator continues to decline and the large speculators‘ opinion doesn’t correspond to the market technical picture.
New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD)
The trend is bearish, another correction came to an end last week, the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after its completion and a new correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the resistance levels, the highs of October 13-18.
COT net position indicator increased but didn’t reverse and the major players’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.
Russian rouble (USDRUB)
The Daily trend is bearish (for USDRUB), the market is in the correction. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction completion. USDRUB short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the highs of October 6-10.
Large speculators continue to buy Rouble and the major players’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.
Conclusions
In terms of medium-term trading, financial instruments with the correction close to completion on the Daily timeframe and with potentially the most promising risk-reward ratio are EUR/GBP, CHF/JPY, CAD/CHF.
In the near future WTI Crude Oil, silver, GBP/AUD, CAD/JPY, USD/RUB, Dollar Index, EUR/USD, AUD/USD can become noteworthy.
Other financial instruments in the trade list may be also interesting, but in these markets pullback signals on the Daily timeframe are likely to occur no earlier than a week.
Good luck in trading!