We make up a weekly medium-term trade list based on CFTC reports and technical analysis.
The overview provides a description of the technical condition of the market on the most popular financial instruments, as well as information on the large speculators’ actions according to the last COT reports and the previous period.
If you want to use CFTC reports in your trading practice, you should understand that for an objective assessment of the situation it’s not enough to know the data of the last report. The dynamic is more important, in other words, comparing the statistics of large speculators’ actions in the current period with the previous one, so we mention both values.
E-Mini S&P 500 (ESH18)
The trend is bullish, another correction came to an end last week and the impulse wave develops. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of December 5-7.
COT net position indicator reversed, large speculators began to sell actively and hedgers began to buy. Professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the Daily trend direction and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.
E-Mini S&P500 (ESH18). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.
American dollar remains in the uptrend, the correction came to an end last week, the pullback signal was formed and another impulse wave develops now. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the lows of December 13-15.
COT net position indicator reversed, CFTC reports indicate that large speculators are actively buying and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction
Dollar Index (DXY). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.
Euro (EUR/USD)
Euro remains in the medium-term bear trend, the correction came to an end last week, the pullback signal was formed, the impulse wave develops. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the resistance level, the highs of December 13-15.
COT net position indicator continues to increase, large speculators are buying and hedgers are selling. Professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the trend direction and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.
EUR/USD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.
Swiss Franc (USD/CHF)
USD/CHF currency pair goes on rising, the market remains in the medium-term uptrend and another impulse wave develops. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the support level, the lows of December 13-15.
COT net position indicator reversed and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the Daily trend direction.
CHF/USD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.
British Pound (GBP/USD)
British pound remains in the uptrend, the market is around the support level on the Daily timeframe. A pullback buying opportunity from this level will most likely appear within next week or it will be broken, the trend will change and a breakout selling opportunity will be formed. Anyway this asset may be interesting for medium-term trading.
CFTC reports indicate that large speculators go on buying pound, hedgers are selling and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.
GBP/USD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY)
USD/JPY currency pair remains in the medium-term uptrend and the correction develops. At the same time the market is around the support level on the Daily timeframe. A pullback buying opportunity from this level will most likely appear within next week or it will be broken, the trend will change and a breakout selling opportunity will be formed. Anyway this asset may be interesting for medium-term trading.
Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the support level, the lows of December 6-7. COT net position indicator didn’t reverse following the market and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the Daily trend direction.
JPY/USD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.
WTI Crude Oil (CLG18)
The oil market remains in the downtrend, if the price remains in the price range of $56- $58 within a week, a flat or a triangle will be formed on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the resistance level, the highs of December 11-12.
COT net position indicator didn’t reverse following the market and the professionals’ opinion still doesn’t correspond to the Daily trend direction.
WTI Crude Oil (CLG18). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.
Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD)
Canadian dollar, as well as the oil market, fluctuates in the price range. At the same time the USD/CAD medium-term trend remains bullish. USD/CAD long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of December 13-15.
Large speculators go on selling Canadian dollar, hedgers are buying and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.
CAD/USD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.
Gold (XAU/USD) and silver (XAG/USD)
The oil and the silver markets remain in the medium-term downtrends and the corrections are formed on the Daily timeframe. Pullback selling opportunities on the Daily timeframe will appear after their completion. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level, the highs of November 27-29 for the gold market and the highs of November 22-28 for the silver market.
Gold (GCG18). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.
Large speculators go on selling, hedgers are buying and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.
Silver (SIH18). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.
Australian Dollar (AUD/USD)
Australian dollar broke through the resistance level on the Daily timeframe on Thursday and the trend is bullish now. A pullback buying opportunity on the Daily timeframe will appear after the correction formation. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the support level, the lows of December 7-11. COT net position indicator reversed and has been rising for the second consecutive week – large speculators are buying.
AUD/USD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.
New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD)
The resistance level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Wednesday, the trend is bullish. NZD/USD currency pair broke through the triangle formed earlier in the direction that corresponds to the professionals’ opinion. A pullback entry point will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Buying positions will remain relevant until the market is above the support level, the lows of December 7-11. CFTC reports indicate that the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.
NZD/USD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.
Russian rouble (USD/RUB)
USD/RUB currency pair remains in the medium-term bear trend, the correction came to an end last week and the impulse wave develops. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the resistance level, the highs of December 6-13.
Net position indicator increases, large speculators go on buying, hedgers are selling and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.
RUB/USD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.
Conclusions
In terms of medium-term trading, financial instruments with the correction close to completion on the Daily timeframe and with potentially the most promising risk-reward ratio are USD/JPY, EUR/JPY.
In the near future gold, silver, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, GBP/USD can become noteworthy depending on the market correction depth.
Other financial instruments in the trade list may be also interesting, but in these markets pullback signals on the Daily timeframe are likely to occur no earlier than a week.
Good luck in trading!