Wednesday is the next FOMC Meeting. What if the 10-year yield continues to climb heading into Wednesday's policy statement? Suppose yields backs up to 1.80%. Will Fed Chair Jerome Powell be concerned that the rapid climb on the long end is more than just a reflection of the anticipation of post-pandemic growth acceleration, and instead is destabilizing-enough to invoke Yield Curve Controls (YCC)?
If my technical set up work is whispering anything to us about the projected path of yield, then the upleg off of the 1/27 low at 1.00% should be in its final thrust, and points next to 1.70%, where my pattern work is expecting a meaningful correction of the January-March up-move from 1.00% to 1.70%.
Based on such a scenario, my sense is that Powell could be about to throw some cold water on the red hot rise in the 10-year yield. If the yield does correct into the 1.30% to 1.20% target zone, however, let's consider it a buying opportunity in ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (NYSE:TBT) (a shorting opportunity in iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT)).