On 26 March, we asked clients where they expected EUR/SEK, EUR/NOK and EUR/USD to be in three months (19 June). We also asked the following questions. (1) Will the Riksbank hike in 2018? (2) Will Norges Bank hike in 2018? (3) Will the ECB hike before 2020?
EUR/SEK? Clients have not given up on a recovery for the Swedish krona, although they expect it to stay above 10.00 in 3M. Consensus expects a 1.5% fall in 3M, down to 10.03. The rally in EUR/SEK over the past few months rhymes with clients becoming more doubtful about a hike this year (see below). However, they expect the krona to strengthen in a no-hike scenario and despite an arguably negative outlook for the housing market, 36% see it below 10.00 and only 6% expect it to reach 10.30 or higher. We forecast EUR/SEK at 10.30 in 3M.