It seems as though more recently, the 6-month consolidation cycle in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (ARCA:SPY) alongside the concomitant volatility in fixed-income, is creating a layer of anxiety rather than ease. The feeling of nervousness as I speak with individual investors stems from the fact that growth is slowing and gains seem harder to come by.
This creates the lurking sensation that there is a problem that needs to be fixed through action.
Let me guess – if you’ve been managing a relatively balanced portfolio that has gained less than 2% over the last six months, you’re probably thinking that it’s time to make a change.
Maybe we sell all the bonds, buy more growth stocks, get some China A-shares in here and really see if we can get this thing moving again.
That will solve all your problems. For about 5 minutes.
Drastic changes of that sort are going to alleviate the immediate feelings of anxiety and give you a sense of purpose after months of inaction. However, it will also grossly skew your overall asset allocation towards a risk profile that may be far outside the bounds of your comfort zone.
Always remember that chasing short-term performance in individual hot spots can be fraught with risk. As an example, the Deutsche X-trackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF (NYSE:ASHR) has gained 143% over the last year. Great place to be if were early to the party. However, at this stage of the game, ASHR could easily lose 20% of its value and still be considered in an uptrend.
As a disciplined investor, one of the hardest things to learn is patience. You don’t always have to be doing something all the time in order to be actively participating in the market.
Sometimes it’s better to grind your way through the boring periods by revisiting your investment plan. Whether your goals are growth, income, or a mix of the two; having a solid foundation of appropriate investments will help alleviate the stress of inaction. This will also ensure you are properly positioned for a break in either direction and comfortable with your existing positions.
Keep in mind that just because volatility has been tepid for so long, doesn’t mean it can’t ramp up in a hurry.
If you do decide to make changes, do so in incremental stages that allows for flexibility in the event that additional opportunities suddenly open up. Having some cash on the sidelines isn’t a bad thing right now as there has been little opportunity cost wasted in 2015. However, you need to be focused on areas to deploy that capital as conditions evolve.
Hang tough out there as we strive to keep emotions in check and avoid making preemptive changes at inopportune moments.
Disclosure : FMD Capital Management, its executives, and/or its clients may hold positions in the ETFs, mutual funds or any investment asset mentioned in this article. The commentary does not constitute individualized investment advice. The opinions offered herein are not personalized recommendations to buy, sell or hold securities.
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