FedEx (NYSE:FDX) reported growth and signs of sustainable improvement in its FQ3 earnings report, but H1 2025 is an unlikely time to buy the stock. The company’s results are mixed in a bad way, with weak margins offset by strong revenue, and guidance was reduced.
The takeaway is that headwinds continue to impact the market sentiment and will likely lead to lower stock prices before the rebound begins. The rebound will likely start later this year, assuming growth and wider margin remain in the outlook for 2026. If not, this transportation stock could trend lower in 2025 and keep moving lower until business traction is regained.
How low can the FDX stock price go? A lot lower, according to the analysts and the technical indications. The Q3 results and guidance update led the market into a 10% free fall, breaking a critical support level and setting the market up to trend lower. In this scenario, the market could fall to the $200 level or lower; the only question is whether it will be a sharp, quick decline or a slow grind to lower levels. 
Analysts are not impressed with the company’s results or guidance. They are lowering their price targets for the stock along with their forecasts for results, creating a headwind for sentiment that could strengthen as the year progresses. While the consensus continues to forecast an upside for the market, the revision trend is declining, with fresh targets leading to the low-end range.
That is $200 and a critical figure to watch; if the bottom falls out of the analysts’ sentiment, the same is likely for the stock’s price. Until then, FDX stock is rated a consensus of Moderate Buy, although there are many Sell ratings in the mix.
FedEx Has Lackluster Quarter Despite Operational Improvements
FedEx didn’t have a bad quarter, but its strengths were offset by weaknesses that have left the market moving to the sidelines. The $22.2 billion in revenue is up 2.3% compared to last year and outperformed relative to the consensus estimates, but the strength did not carry through to the bottom line.
Increased wage and purchased transportation rates offset DRIVE initiative savings to leave earnings up compared to last year, but they are weaker than MarketBeat’s reported consensus estimate forecasted. The $4.51 is sufficient to sustain the balance sheet health and capital return outlook, but despite the top-line strength, it fell short of consensus by 240 basis points.
The sticking point is the guidance. The company reduced its guidance and now expects Q4 softness to lead to a flat to slightly down year. This is versus an expectation for strength to sustain through Q4 and drive a low-single-digit annual increase. The earnings outlook was also reduced, leaving the high-end range well below the analysts’ expectations. The risk now is that Q4 results will be weaker than the new guidance, leading to underperformance and a potentially soft year in F2026.
Institutions May Provide a Floor for FDX Stock in 2025
The institutional activity was bullish in Q1 and may have provided a floor for the market. The institutions own about 85% of the stock and were buying on balance ahead of the Q3 release. If that continues after the release, the market will unlikely fall below the $215 level, a support target aligning with prior price action and technical signals in 2023.
Additionally, the company has $2.6 billion left under its repurchase authorization and over $5.0 billion in cash on the balance sheet, so it may utilize the stock price discount to reduce its share count. As it is, the F2025 repurchase activity reduced the count by 3.2% on average in Q3 compared to the prior year.