In the US, next week's main event is the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Stronger growth in H2 supports our view that the Fed will raise the target range by 25 points. All eyes will be on indicators for next year's hiking path.
OPEC is set to meet non-OPEC producers in Vienna tomorrow to discuss oil output cuts.
The Bank of England (BoE) meets on Thursday. We do not expect any action, so focus will be on the tone of the minutes. We think we need to see significantly slower growth and/or higher unemployment before easing becomes likely again.
Next week, we will get inflation data out of Sweden and Denmark. We expect it to show that annual inflation has picked up in both countries. This is the final piece of meaningful information the Riksbank will receive before its monetary policy meeting on 20 December.
At the Norges Bank meeting, we expect a 10-15bp downward revision of the interest rate path for next year. However, we do not expect Norges Bank to cut rates, due to stronger-than-expected developments in the housing market.
Global macro and market themes
There is a strong case for further extension of ECB QE purchases beyond December 2017.
Solid US data lend support for the reflation case.
Fed doves will only partly offset the expected fiscal boost from Donald Trump.
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