As expected, the FOMC maintained the Fed funds target rate at 0.25-0.50%. Neither analysts nor investors expected the Fed to hike so close to the election day next week
There were no new 'dots' and no press conference.
There were no major changes to the FOMC statement. The most important change was that it now says the case for a rate hike 'has continued to strengthen' (previously 'has strengthened') but that it 'decided, for the time being, to wait for some further evidence of continued progress toward its objectives'. In other words, we still have some important data releases left, starting with the jobs report for October tomorrow, which the Fed wants to take into account before making up its mind.
It is worth noting that there is no explicit mention of the December meeting in the statement.
We have, for some time, had this non-consensual view that the Fed will not raise the Fed funds target range this year. Although the probability of a December hike has definitely increased, as economic data have been better than we had expected, we still think it is too early to say a December hike is a done deal, as there are still valid arguments for not hiking this year at all.
If the Fed is set to raise rates in December, the next question is how many hikes should we expect next year? Remember the FOMC becomes more dovish next year due to shifting voting rights. Perhaps we should get used to a hike 'once a year' as the hiking pace, especially given that we may see further downward corrections of the expected Fed funds rate in the longer run.
Markets have more or less priced in a Fed hike by year-end as much as possible (70% probability) given that there are still one and a half months before the December meeting.
To read the entire report Please click on the pdf File Below