Last week, European Central Bank left key rates unchanged in March monetary policy meeting, as expected. ECB said based on a joint assessment of financing conditions and inflation outlook, ECB expects purchases under PEPP over the next quarter to be conducted at a significantly higher pace than during the first months of this year.
In the US, we received soft inflation data last week. February Core Consumer Prices increased by just 0.1% month-on-month. On the year, prices eased to 1.3% in February from 1.4% in the previous month
Looking ahead, focus on the Fed Monetary Policy Meeting this week. The Federal Reserve is expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged. The meeting will give markets new guidance about monetary policy outlook. The U.S. central bank will release new forecasts for economic growth.
In the previous meeting, the Federal Reserve left its benchmark rate unchanged in the range of 0% to 0.25% and said it would keep rates within the current range until the economy has moved on from the Covid-19 crisis and is on track to meet the central bank's targets. Watch out for this week's rate decision, the market will also respond to Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments at his press conference.
Moreover, US Retail Sales figures will be closely watched on Tuesday. Economists predict that retail sales drop at -0.6% in February. On the other hand, core retail sales, which exclude autos, are expected to have decreased by -0.1%.
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair closed the last week above the 1.1919 main support level. If the pair stays above 1.1919, on a four-hourly basis, we will see 1.1994 and 1.2046 as resistance levels. On the downside, if the price drops below 1.1919, we will follow the next support level at 1.1867
Support: 1.1919 - 1.1867 - 1.1819
Resistance : 1.1994 - 1.2046 - 1.2093
GBP/USD
Focus on the BoE rate decision. The Bank of England looks likely to leave monetary policy unchanged after its meeting on Thursday.
The GBP/USD pair stayed above the main support level of 1.3883. As long as the price trades above 1.3883 on a four-hourly basis, we will see 1.4005 as the resistance level again. Otherwise, if the pair drops below 1.3883, we will follow the next support level at 1.3784.
Support: 1.3883 - 1.3784 - 1.3688
Resistance: 1.4005 - 1.4329
Gold
We are closely watching the 1722 main support level in the Gold Price. As long as the price stays above 1722, on a daily basis, we will see the daily resistance levels at 1736 and 1745. On the downside, if the price breaks down below 1722, the next support level will be at 1711
Support: 1722 - 1711 - 1698
Resistance: 1736 - 1745 - 1763
Crude oil
The crude oil price is testing the daily resistance level of 66.28. As long as the price stays below 66.28, on a daily basis, the rise may be limited and the key support level can be found at 63.01. In contrast, if the price goes beyond 66.28, we will see 69.45 as a resistance level.
Support: 63.01 - 60.20 - 58.95
Resistance: 66.28 - 69.45 - 72.78
EUR/JPY
The EUR/JPY pair hit its highest level since October 2018. As long as the price stays above 130.23 on a daily basis, the rise may continue, we will follow the key resistance level at 131.26. On the downside, if the pair drops below 130.23, the next major support level will be at 129.33.
Support: 130.23 - 129.33 - 128.39
Resistance: 131.26 - 132.07 - 132.96