Down, up, and down again – so go precious metal prices since the release yesterday of the Federal Open Market Committee’s latest verdict on the near-term direction of US monetary policy. The FOMC decided to prolong “Operation Twist” – sales of short-term Treasury securities, with the cash generated used to buy long-term Treasurys – but stopped shy of announcing QE3 or any other new moves to boost bank reserves. Stocks and commodities have reacted poorly to this news, while gold, silver, platinum and palladium have also slipped lower.
PIMCO’s Mohamed El-Erian has a withering verdict on the Fed’s latest move:
“What this continued Fed activism will do is to continue altering the functioning of markets, contaminate price discovery and distort capital allocation. Already, the viability of several segments – from money markets to insurance and from pension provision to suppliers of daily market liquidity, all of whom provide financial services to companies and individuals – has been undermined. The Fed has also conditioned many market participants to believe in a policy put for both equities and bonds. . . . And other government agencies are relieved to have the policy spotlight remain away from their damaging inactivity.”
Figures out today from HSBC show that manufacturing activity in China contracted for the eighth consecutive month in May, while German composite PMI has also fallen over the last month, and is now at its lowest level in three years. With economies all over the world struggling, big inflationary policy responses from central bankers remain inevitable. As the chart below from Bloomberg indicates, owning gold remains a smart strategy for dealing with the fallout.