Traders have mostly discounted the latest single cut by the European Central Bank (‘the ECB’) since that was widely expected and the comments in the subsequent press conference didn’t give any significant new information. Inflation has also risen in the eurozone in the last two months but hasn’t reached as high as in the USA. The difference in rates between the ECB and the Fed is likely to remain at least 1% for the foreseeable future.
After a bounce at the end of November following the failed test of $1.04, EUR/USD hasn’t shown ongoing momentum upward. It might now fall into a sideways trend with a range between around $1.04 and $1.06. Most indicators are close to neutral in the shorter term but the main downtrend active in October and November could reassert itself depending on the reaction to the Fed’s meeting and, to a lesser extent, PCE and GDP.