The EUR/USD position from Friday’s 1.2012 close is the approach to the 5 year average at 1.2074. At current 62 pips away from the average, USD/JPY faces the opposite corollary as 72 pips from the 107.82 close lie just below its 5 year average at 107.10. EUR/USD and USD/JPY both share the same space on the 18 year historic scale as both trade between averages 1104 day and 5 year at 1279 days.
The current EUR/USD range is located from the 5 year at 1.2074 and 1104 average at 1.1918. Above 1.2074, next comes 1.2096 at the 1359 day average, 1.2105 at the 4688 day average and 1.2219 at the 4432 day. The longer term 4000 day averages crossed above averages from the 3923 day to converge and rest just below the 1359 day. The same phenomenon is seen in USD/JPY. The many resistance points are many and massive and begins with 1.2074 at the 5 year and 1.2096 at the 1359 day. A break of 1.2074 represents not only a huge level but it signifies EUR is heading far higher over time.
The 18 year mid point is located from 1.2969 to 1.1051 at 1.2010. EUR/USD below 1.2074 then the mid point is located at 1.1562 and just above the 81 day average at 1.1515. Above 1.2074 then the mid point is located at 1.2521. The significance to an 81 day average is not only is it above the 75 day mid point from the 50 and 100 day but much FX activity in Forward and Hedge trading takes place at the 81 day so its level is crucial as an indicator.
Lower EUR/USD must break below 1.1918 at the 1104 day to next target 1.1624 at the specially designed average then the mid point at 1.1562 and 1.1515 at the 81 day. Only a break at the 849 day average at 1.1442 signifies EUR/USD is heading far lower to 1.1067 and 1.1051.
Most important average overall is the 10 year at current 1.2950. This average was 1.3200’s at the time of the 2008 crisis. A 10 year average is a demarcation line to represent a period over the long term. The break for example at 1.3200’s informed EUR/USD was heading lower but it would remain lower over many years. It remains the current average to contain any EUR/USD price rises as corrections against the longer term down trend that began in 2008. If 1.2950 ever broke above then EUR/USD enters a new multi year period and it heads miles higher.
A noted point is USD/JPY was represented by the 1105 average while today’s EUR/USD by the 1104 average. The system updates everyday. The 850 day yesterday is today’s 849.
81 day average = 1.1515
XXX = Specially designed average = 1.1624
337 day = 1.1051
594 = 1.1067
849 = 1.1442
1104 = 1.1918
EUR/USD close 1.2012
1279 = 5Y = 1.2074
1359 = 1.2096
1616 = 1.2335
1874 = 1.2481
2131 = 1.2678
2386 = 1.2810
2562 = 10Y = 1.2950
2642 = 1.2969
2897 = 1.2968
3153 = 1.2899
3411 = 1.2885
3590 = 14Y = 1.2844
3668 = 1.2813
3923 = 1.2644
4177 = 1.2413
4432 = 1.2219
4688 = 1.2105 = Jan 1, 1999