EU and US futures are in the green before the U.S. inflation data: NASDAQ 100 Futures, S&P 500 Futures, DAX Futures, FTSE MIB Futures all in the green.
A mini-market rally seems to have started. The markets are not intimidated by the drastic tones coming from the ECB.
According to some insiders, there is a growing risk of raising the benchmark rate to 2% or more to curb record inflation in the eurozone, despite a likely recession.
In reality, the reasons for that are to be found in Ukraine. Markets are hoping to end the conflict now that Ukraine seems to be getting the better of Russia.
An end of the conflict would mean excellent chances of ending the energy crisis with a consequent collapse of inflation that would take the markets to new highs this year.
Analyzing macro data today is very important. We will have the data on the annual consumer price index in the United States.
A positive figure means an increase in the possibility of a restrictive monetary policy. A negative figure means a decrease in the possibility of a restrictive monetary policy.
So with a negative figure, we will see markets rise. With a positive figure, a fall.
Hot Stocks And Instruments
Banca Monte Dei Paschi di Siena (BIT:BMPS) + 5%, Anima Holding (BIT:ANIM) + 1%: is available to participate in the 2.5 billion capital increase, but at the moment, there are no negotiations on the matter, sources familiar with the situation explained to Reuters.
One of the sources said that the asset management company could contribute 150-250 million euros, depending on how the terms of its partnership with Mps (BMPS) are reviewed.
Maurizio Leo, economic manager of Fratelli d'Italia, told Bloomberg that MPS should postpone the capital increase pending the new government.
Indeed good news, with prices rising sharply from their lows.
Anima is interested in distributing its products, and MPS, in definite difficulty, is a perfect prey now. The stock remains what it is, with very high debt and no profitability.
Purchases could be made only from a speculative point of view, in case news about mergers and acquisitions comes out.
Natural Gas Futures + 4% to 8.37 dollars. European natural gas -8% to 190 euros per MWh, on the lows since the beginning of August.
The European Commission has devised a plan to skim off the extra profits from non-gas-fired power plants and use the money raised to support consumers facing soaring bills.
This is what emerges from a draft document seen by Reuters. The draft proposal, which is expected to be revealed by Brussels this week, would also require fossil fuel companies to pay a 'solidarity contribution' to raise funds to be allocated to countries for measures to alleviate the energy crisis.
The appeal of gas could be over, remembering that the possible energy crisis coming in winter in Europe is already discounted by prices.
EUR/USD strongly appreciating at 1.017. Joachim Nagel, the governor of the German central bank, reiterated yesterday that as long as the trend in consumer prices does not change trajectory, monetary policy does not change.
Markets are considering another 75 basis point hike in the October meeting. Nagel, interviewed by Deutschlandfunk, did not indicate the ECB's next move on rates, merely stating that it will depend on the data.
Surprisingly, the ECB is proving very aggressive with the rate hike, and with the probable end of the conflict, the euro is a candidate for a rally until the end of the year, with prices that could return to the 1.10 area.