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European Market Update: UK Budget In Focus

Published 03/20/2013, 08:05 AM
Updated 01/01/2017, 02:20 AM
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BOE Minutes: Policy held steady over concerns that more bond purchases could drive down sterling and undermine commitment to fighting inflation; UK budget in focus

Notes/Observations

The Cyprus government rejects rescue plan (36 votes against, 19 abstaining); working with European officials to keep its financial system afloat.

ECB Statement: take note of the Cyprus vote; in contact with Troika partners; reaffirms commitment to provide liquidity as needed within the rules.

Eurogroup Head: Cyprus vote is disappointing; Offer for Cyprus still stands; bailout wont exceed €10B

Cyprus officials in Russia on bailout talks; says negotiations are constructive but cancels planned 06:00 ET press conference.

French Budget Min Cahuzac resigned after Swiss-Bank-Account revelations.

Spain might tax banks on deposits at a moderate rate; want to compensate regions for loss of tax receipts.

BOE Minutes: Policy held steady over concerns that more bond purchases could drive down sterling and undermine public perceptions of commitment to fighting inflation.

Economic Data

(DE) Germany Feb Producer Prices M/M: -0.1% v +0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.5%e

(DK) Denmark Mar Consumer Confidence Indicator: -2.1 v -2.0e

(TW) Taiwan Feb Export Orders Y/Y: -14.5% v -3.0%e

(ZA) South Africa Feb CPI (all items) M/M: 1.0% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 5.9% v 5.6%e

(EU) ECB: €12M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. €34M prior; €133.6B parked in deposit facility vs. €135.0B prior.

(NL) Netherlands Mar Consumer Confidence: -41 v -40e

(IC) Iceland Central Bank (Sedlabanki) leaves 7-Day Lending Rate unchanged at 6.00%; as expected.

(EU) Euro Zone Jan Current Account nsa: -€4.5B v +€29.0B prior; Current Account Seasonally Adj: €14.8B v €16.0B prior.

(MA) Malaysia Feb CPI Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.5%e

(UK) Bank of England Minutes : Voted 6 to 3 to maintain Asset Purchase Target at £375B

(UK) Bank of England Minutes : Voted 9 to 0 (unanimous) to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.50%

(UK) Feb Jobless Claims Change: -1.5K v -5.0Ke; Claimant Count Rate: 4.7% v 4.7%e

(UK) Jan Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y: 1.3% v 1.5%e; Weekly Earnings ex-Bonus 3M/Y: 1.3% v 1.5%e

(UK) Jan ILO Unemployment Rate: 7.8% v 7.8%e; Employment Change 3M/3M: +131K v +140Ke

(CH)) Swiss Mar Credit Suisse ZEW Expectations Survey: 2.3 v 10.0 prior.

(EU) ECB allotted $700M in 7-Day USD Liquidity Tender at 0.66% vs. $0M prior.

(SE) Sweden sold SEK in 2019 bonds; Yield: 1.5250% v 0.9374% prior.

Fixed Income:

(IN) India sold total INR120B vs. INR120B indicated in 3-month and 12-month Bills.

(RU) Russia sold RUB6.2 vs. RU6.2B indicated in 2019 OFZ bonds; Yield: 6.58% vs. guidance of 6.53-6.58%

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

Equities

FTSE 100 +0.20% at 6,452, DAX +0.50% at 7,985, CAC-40 +0.60% at 3,797, IBEX-35 +0.60% at 8,366, FTSE MIB +0.40% at 15,726, SMI +0.60% at 7,833, S&P 500 Futures +0.40% at 1,548.

Equity markets in Europe have rebounded slightly, following the losses seen on Tuesday's session. Most banks are trading higher led by Credit Agricole and Deutsche Bank. Overall markets are focusing on the developments related to Cyprus, and later today, the US FOMC decision. Companies due to report quarterly earnings during the US morning include Fedex and General Mills.

UK movers [Centamin Egypt +15% (favorable court ruling in Egypt), Asos +5.5% (Q2 sales rose 37%); CPP Group -55% (financing concerns), Greggs -6% (reported y/y decline in FY sales, cautious outlook commentary)]

Germany movers [Dialog Semi +5.5% (broker commentary); Leoni -3.5% (FY13 outlook), Air Berlin -3% (cautious outlook commentary), Metro -2% (FY13 outlook)]

France movers [Cap Gemini +1.5% (broker commentary); Atos Origin -1.5% (placement)]

Italy movers [Banca Popolare di Milano +3% (approved rights offering); BCA Carige -2% (suspended dividend), Fiat -1.5% (cautious Q1 commentary)]

The Netherlands movers [Imtech +3.5% (credit agreement)]

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