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European Market Update: March 15, 2012

Published 03/15/2012, 07:34 AM
Updated 01/01/2017, 02:20 AM
EUR/CHF
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UK100
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DE40
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ES35
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IT40
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HEIG
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0JYA
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GC
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SMI
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MAR
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No surprises in either RBI or SNB rate decisions; Higher US yields continue to dominate currency flows

Economic Data

(IN) India Central Bank (RBI) leaves key rates unchanged; as expected. Repo Rate unchanged at 8.50%; Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) maintained at 4.75% (Note was cut back on Mar 9th by 75bps)

(TH) Thailand Jan Customs Trade Balance: -$1.1B v -$2.0Be; Exports Y/Y: -6.0% v 0.0%e; Imports Y/Y: -4.2% v +6.4%e

(EU) Euro Zone Feb EU 25 New Car Registrations: -9.7% -7.1% prior

(RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e March 9th: $507.7B v 511.6B prior

(CZ) Czech Jan Export Price Index Y/Y: 5.4% v 3.5% prior; Import Price Index Y/Y: 7.0% v 5.1% prior

(CZ) Czech Feb PPI Industrial M/M: 0.1% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 3.6% v 3.9%e

(CZ) Czech Jan Retail Sales Y/Y: 1.3% v 0.7%e

(DK) Denmark Feb Wholesale Prices M/M: 1.0% v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 3.3% v 3.4% prior

(FI) Finland Jan Current Account: €170M v €90M prior

(ES) Spain Q4 House Prices ToT Homes Q/Q: -4.2% v -2.8% prior; Y/Y: -11.2% v -7.4% prior

(TR) Turkey Dec Unemployment Rate: 9.8% v 9.1% prior

(CH) Swiss National Bank (SNB) left the 3-Month Libor Target Rate unchanged at 0.00%; Maintained EUR/CHF floor at 1.2000

(NL) Netherlands Jan Industrial Production M/M: -3.9% v -0.7%e; Y/Y: -1.7% v -2.7%e; Industrial Sales Y/Y: 8.1% v 5.6% prior

(NL) Netherlands Jan Retail Sales Y/Y: 0.8% v 1.3% prior

(NL) Netherlands Feb Unemployment Rate: 6.0% v 6.1%e

(SE) Sweden Feb Unemployment Rate: 7.8% v 8.0%e

(NO) Norway Feb Trade Balance (SEK): 45.3B v 42.0Be

(IT) Italy Jan General Government Debt: €1.936 v €1.898T prior

(GR) Greece Q4 Unemployment Rate: 20.7% v 17.7% prior

(EU) Euro zone Q4 Employment Q/Q: -0.2% v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: -0.2 v 0.3% prior

(EU) Euro zone Q4 Euro-Zone Labour Costs Y/Y: 2.8% v 2.3%e

Fixed Income:

(ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold €3.009B vs. €2.5-3.5B in 2015, 2016 and 2018 bonds

Sold €1.004B in 4.4% Jan 2015 Bono; Avg Yield 2.440% v 2.966% prior; Bid-to-cover: 5.0x v 4.37x; Maximum Yield set at 2.518% v 3.126% prior

Sold €976M in 3.25% April 2016 Bono; Avg Yield 3.374% v 3.784% prior; Bid-to-cover: 4.1x v 2.21x; Max Yield 3.428% v 3.883% prior

Sold €1.029B 4.1% July 2018 Bono; Avg yield 4.193% v 3.953% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.9x v 1.74x prior; Maximum Yield 4.242%

(FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) sold approx €8.46B vs. €7.5-8.5B in 2014, 2016 and 2017 BTAN notes (four tranches)

Sold €2.106B in 4.0% April 2014 BTAN; avg Yield 0.70% v 1.14% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.39x v 1.58x prior

Sold €1.93B in 4.0% Oct 2014 BTAN; avg Yield 0.86% v 2.01% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.13x v 5.44x prior

Sold €1.165B in 2.25% Feb 2016 BTAN; avg Yield 1.40% v 2.71% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.47x v 2.03x prior

Sold €3.260B in 1.75% Feb 2017 BTAN; avg Yield 1.78% v 1.93% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.98x v 1.99x prior

(UK) DMO sold £2.0B in 4.5% July 2042 Gilts; avg yield 3.431% v 4.697% prior; Bid-to-cover:1.71 x v 1.55x prior; Tails 0.2bps v0.8 bps prior

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

Notes/Observations

US President Obama and UK PM Cameron reportedly discussed Oil release

Fitch cut UK sovereign outlook to negative, reaffirmed its AAA rating

China Feb FDI declines for a fourth straight month

India RBI holds rates steady (as expected) with analysts seeing an April cut coming

SNB maintains its interest rate and EUR/CHF floor policy (as expected)

Japan MOF remains vocal on the currency front

Equities

FTSE 100 -0.05% at 5943, DAX +0.25% at 7096, CAC-40 +0.10% at 3568, IBEX-35 -0.10% at 8386, FTSE MIB +0.30% at 16,902, SMI +0.20% at 6312

European shares moved and plateaued to a 8-month high ahead of US Jobless claims report due out in NY morning today. Economic data has been strong in the US and investors are positively anticipating the jobless number. However, European corporate earnings have been mainly disappointing, hence the pause in the rally.

Heidelbergcement [HEI.DE] reported stronger than expected results and anticipated even higher sales and operating profit in 2012. Shares rose after the results. K+S [SDF.DE] missed net for the fourth quarter although the company expected earnings to rise in 2012.

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