Notes/Observations
China data highlights policy dilemma with economic data soft while CPI heats up to a 10-month high: China Jan-Feb retail sales y/y came in at a multi-year low of 12.3% v 15.0%e. Industrial Production for the same period y/y was 9.9% v 10.6%e. China Feb CPI y/y came in hotter than expected at 3.2% v 3.0%e
Fitch cut Italy's sovereign rating by one notch to BBB+ from A-, citing economic outlook and the uncertain political situation; outlook negative (*Note: catches up to S&P and Moody's)
German January Trade Balance in line with expectations with improvements in export/Import components.
France headline production data worse than expected, but has decent upward back-month revisions.
Italy Q4 Final GDP YoY revised a touch worse to -2.8%
US time moved ahead by one hour over the weekend. There is currently 4 hour difference between ET and GMT.
Economic Data
(IN) India February Trade Balance: -$14.9B v -$20.0B prior; Imports Y/Y: 2.6% v 6.1% prior; Exports Y/Y: 4.3% v 0.8% prior
(JP) Japan February Preliminary Machine Tool Orders Y/Y: -21.5% v -26.4% prior
(DE) Germany January Current Account: €11.3B v €10.5Be; Trade Balance: €13.7B v €13.9Be; Imports M/M: 3.3% v 0.7%e; Exports M/M: 1.4% v 0.5%e
(DE) Germany Q4 Labor Costs Q/Q: 0.8% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 2.9% v 2.9% prior
(FI) Finland January Preliminary Trade Balance: -€425M v -€772M prior
(FR) France January Industrial Production M/M: -1.2% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: -3.5% v -2.7%e
(FR) France January Manufacturing Production M/M: -1.4% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: -4.5% v -3.3%e
(HU) Hungary January Preliminary Trade Balance: €317.9M v €384.0Me
(CZ) Czech February CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.8%e
(CZ) Czech Q4 Avg Real Wage Y/Y: +0.9%% v -0.5%e
(CZ) Czech Q4 Final GDP Q/Q: -0.2% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: -1.7% v -1.7%e
(DK) Denmark January Current Account (DKK) 4.7B v 5.0Be; Trade Balance (ex shipping): 6.6B v 6.0Be
(DK) Denmark February CPI M/M: % v 1.2%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.2%e
(DK) Denmark February CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 1.0% v 1.0%e; Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.0%e
(EU) ECB: €15M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. €206M prior; €134.1B parked in deposit facility vs. €129.1B prior
(CH) Swiss January Real Retail Sales Y/Y: 1.9% v 5.1% prior
(IT) Italy Q4 Final GDP Q/Q: -0.9% v -0.9%e; Y/Y: -2.8% v -2.7%e
(NO) Norway February CPI M/M: 0.7% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.0%e
(NO) Norway February CPI Underlying M/M: 0.7% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.1%e
(NO) Norway February Producer Prices incl.Oil M/M: 0.5% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: -2.8% v -2.4% prior
(GR) Greece Q4 Final GDP Y/Y: -5.7% v -6.0% prior
Fixed Income:
(UK) BOE to sell $2.0B in 3-year bond; guidance seen 3bps below the mid-swap
SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM
Equities
Indices: FTSE 100 Index flat at 6,483, DAX -0.3% at 7,965, CAC-40 -0.4% at 3,824, IBEX-35 -1.0% at 8,543, FTSE MIB -0.7% at 16,092, SMI -0.1% at 7,737, S&P 500 Futures -0.1% at 1,542
European equity indices are slightly weaker after Fitch downgraded Italy's sovereign rating one notch to BBB+ on Friday. Softer Chinese data showing slower levels of lending, and higher than expected CPI weighed on export names. Stoxx 600 came off 4.5-yr highs after being boosted by strong US payrolls Friday, falling under 295 early in the day. OMX 20 Index was higher by 0.5%, CAC 40 fell 0.3% back to pre-payroll Friday levels, while Madrid General was -0.4%. DAX is led higher by Henkel, Fresenius and Linde, while Continental, Deutsche Bank and Merck KGaA were biggest downside movers. CAC was led higher by ArcelorMittal, +2%, while BNP Paribas fell 0.75%.
Austria movers: [OMV -4.1% (brokers cut)]
Germany movers: [Nordex +6% (stronger FY12 Rev and positive outlook), Continental AG -2.1%, Elringklinger -2.3% (multiple downgrades)]
UK movers [Sage Group -3.3% (MS re-iterates rating), Anite -8.4% (Sees FY profit in-line), Ladbrokes +6.7% (Partners with Playtech)]
Italy movers [Seat Pagine Gialle -5.3% (earnings)]
Switzerland movers [Helvetia +0.9% (earnings)]