Notes/Observations
Italian PM Letta wins the first of two confidence votes. In Chamber of Deputies (Lower House) he was backed by PD, PDL and Monti's Centrists; Senate (Upper House) expected to vote today.
S&P comments on new coalition Italy Govt; Says BBB+ sovereign ratings unaffected, outlook remains negative.
U.S. Treasury expects to pay down $35B in debt in Q2 (vs. $17B borrowing est prior)
Mix batch of Japanese data b with March Jobless Rate coming in better ( 4.1% v 4.2%e) while Mar PMI rises to 51.1 from 50.4. However Mar Industrial Production misses with MoM at 0.2% v 0.4%e
Germany's GfK Consumer Confidence hits 5-year high aided by stable labor market and low inflation.
No surprises in Spain Q1 Prelim GDP (in line with central bank's prediction but still its seventh consecutive quarterly contraction)
Germany Apr Unemployment Change registers its second straight monthly increase.
Italy Mar Prelim Unemployment Rate retreats from 20-year highs, comes in at 11.5% v 11.7%e
Euro Zone Unemployment hits fresh EMU record of 12.1% (as expected)
European inflation continues to fall steeply
Dealers noted that the plethora of data would unlikely add new information to the overall picture ahead of key rate decisions
Economic Data
(JP) Japan Mar Annualized Housing Starts: 904K v 890Ke; Y/Y: 7.3% v 6.0%e; Construction Orders Y/Y: -3.4% v +16.3% prior
(PH) Philippines Mar Bank Lending Y/Y: 14.7% v 14.5% prior; Bank Lending Net of RRPs Y/Y: 14.2% v 15.1% prior
(PH) Philippines Mar M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 11.4% v 9.9% prior
(DE) Germany May GfK Consumer Confidence Survey: 6.2 v 5.9e (5-year high)
(DE) Germany Mar Retail Sales M/M: -0.3% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: -2.8% v -1.2%e
(DE) Germany Mar ILO Employment: 41.788M v 41.73M prior; Unemployment Rate: 5.4% v 5.4% prior
(ZA) South Africa Mar M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 8.5% v 7.5%e; Private Sector Credit Y/Y: 7.8% v 7.3%e
(FI) Finland Feb Final Trade Balance: -€75M v -€85M prelim
(RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e Apr 29th (RUB): 7.63T v 7.65T prior
(FR) France Mar Producer Prices M/M: 0.0% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.4%e
(FR) France Mar Consumer Spending M/M: 1.3% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 0.0%e
(ES) Spain Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: -0.5% v -0.5%e (seventh consecutive quarterly contraction); Y/Y: -2.0% v -2.0%e
(HU) Hungary Mar Producer Prices M/M: 1.6% v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.1%e
(DK) Denmark Mar Unemployment Rate: 4.4% v 4.6%e; Gross Unemployment Rate: 5.8% v 6.0%e
(TR) Turkey Mar Trade Balance: -$7.4B v -$8.3Be
(EU) ECB: €17.0M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. €5.0M prior; €119.1B parked in deposit facility vs. €109.7B prior
(AT) Austria Mar Producer Price Index M/M: -0.2% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: -0.6% v -0.3% prior
(TH) Thailand Mar Current Account: $1.9B v $1.5Be; Total Trade Account Balance: $2.0B v $0.6B prior; Overall Trade Balance: -$65M v +$1.6B prior
(TH) Thailand Mar Business Sentiment Index: 54.4 v 51.2 prior
(DE) Germany Apr Unemployment Change: +4K v +2Ke; Unemployment Rate: 6.9% v 6.9%e
(IT) Italy Mar Preliminary Unemployment Rate: 11.5% v 11.7%e
(CZ) Czech Mar Money Supply Y/Y: 4.4 v 4.1% prior
(NO) Norway Feb AKU Unemployment Rate: 3.5% v 3.6%e
(NO) Norway Retail Sales Volume M/M: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: -4.2% v -0.6% prior
(ES) Spain Feb Current Account: -€1.3B v -€2.6B prior
(UK) Mar Net Consumer Credit: £0.5B v £0.5Be; Net Lending: £0.4B v £0.6Be
(UK) Mar Mortgage Approvals: 53.5K v 52.7Ke
(UK) Mar M4 Money Supply M/M: -0.9% v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: 0.3% v 0.6% prior; M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualized: 4.6% v 3.1%e
(HK) Hong Kong Mar Govt Monthly Budget Balance (HKD): -10.9B v -6.2B prior
(HK) Hong Kong Mar M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 9.2% v 8.5% prior; M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 9.2% v 8.5% prior; M1 Money Supply Y/Y: 17.6% v 13.6% prior
(ES) Spain Feb Total Housing Permits M/M: 24.1% v 19.7% prior; Y/Y: -10.1% v -26.8% prior
(EU) Euro Zone Apr CPI Estimate Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.6%e
(EU) Euro Zone Mar Unemployment Rate: 12.1% v 12.1%e (fresh record level)
(IS) Iceland Q1 Unemployment Rate: 5.8% v 4.7% prior
(BE) Belgium Mar Unemployment Rate: 8.2% v 8.2% prior
(IT) Italy Apr Preliminary CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.3%e
(IT) Italy Apr Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.3% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.6%e
(GR) Greece Feb Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: -14.4% v -16.8% prior; Retail Sales Value: -14.4% v -16.6% prior
Fixed Income:
(IN) India sold INR100B vs. INR100B indicated in 3-month and 12-month Bills
(EU) ECB allotted $0.0N in 8-Day USD Liquidity Tender at fixed 0.62% vs. $1.3B prior
(CH) Switzerland sold CHF684.2M in 3-month Bills; Yield: -0.125% v -0.111% prior
(EU) ECB allotted €105.0B in 6-Day Main Refinancing Tender at fixed 0.75% vs. €110.4B prior
(HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF40B vs. HUF50B indicated in 3-Months Bills; Avg Yield: 4.27% v 4.26% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.40x v 1.71x prior
(BE) Belgium Debt Agency sold total €1.83B vs. €1.5-2.0B indicated range in 3-month and 6-month Bills
Sold €775M in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield -0.001% v +0.015% prior; Bid-to-cover: 5.01x v 3.02x prior
Sold €1.05B in 6-month Bills; Avg yield +0.014% v 0.050% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.66x v 2.34x prior
(UK) DMO sold £500M in 0.375% I/L 2062 Gilts; Real Yield: -0.213% v +0.040% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.07x
SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM
Equities
FTSE 100 +0.05% at 6,461, DAX +0.70% at 7,928, CAC-40 -0.10% at 3,863, IBEX-35 -0.20% a 8,438, FTSE MIB -0.10% at 16,919, SMI +0.20% at 7,922, S&P 500 Futures flat at 1,588
Equity markets in Europe are mostly higher, as Deutsche Bank, Lloyds and UBS are gaining on better than expected quarterly results. The gains in Deutsche Bank have driven the outperformance in Germany's DAX. Resource related firms are trading mixed, although BP has outperformed on better than expected earnings. US companies due to report earnings later today include Aetna, Avon Products, Cummins, Oshkosh, Pfizer and U.S. Steel.
UK movers [Carphone Warehouse +12% (Q4 European sales +6.5% y/y), Aquarius Platinum +7% (Q1 loss narrowed), Lloyds +4.5% (Q1 profits rose y/y), BP +3% (Q1 profits above ests); Wolfson Microelectronics -6% (margins declined y/y), Centrica -1.5% (broker commentary)]
Germany movers [Deutsche Bank +5.5% (capital raise was well subscribed), Wacker Chemie +3% (reaffirmed outlook), Metro +1.5% (broker commentary); Qiagen -5% (Q1 sales below ests),Fresenius Medical Care -4% (Q1 results below estimates)]
France movers [Eramet -1.5% (Q1 sales declined y/y)]
Italy movers [Luxottica -2% (Q1 sales below ests), Fiat -1.5% (Q1 results below ests)]
Spain movers [Gamesa -1% (Q1 sales declined y/y)]
Switzerland movers [UBS +4.5% (Q1 results above ests), Geberit +1% (Q1 sales rose y/y); Clariant -1% (margins declined y/y)]
Belgium movers [Anheuser-Busch -2.5% (Q1 results below ests)]