Notes/Observations
Japan's Golden Week holidays begin, while China was also closed on Monday.
China YTD industrial profits as of Q1 slowed markedly relative to Jan-Feb.
China Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) expects faster growth of exports and imports in 2013.
PM Gillard: Australia to deliver budget surpluses in mid-term; Confirms revenue shortfall may be up to A$12B by FY-end.
Italy forged a new coalition govt between the new PM Letta and Berlusconi's center-right party gaining high-profile cabinet seats; Parliament expected to hold a vote of confidence.
Italy 5-year and 10-year auction results seen as solid with yields at lowest level since Oct 2010.
Positioning ahead of key central bank policy meetings (FOMC & ECB) and Friday's U.S. NFP report.
Economic Data
(FI) Finland Apr Consumer Confidence: 6.4 v 10.8e
(DE) Germany Apr CPI Saxony M/M: -0.5% v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.5% prior
(ES) Spain Mar Adjusted Real Retail Sales Y/Y: -8.9% v -8.9%e; Real Retail Sales Y/Y: % v -10.4% prior
(ES) Spain Apr Preliminary Consumer Price Index Y/Y: 1.4% v 2.1%e; CPI EU Harmonized Y/Y: 1.5% v 2.2%e
(DK0 Denmark Apr Industrial Confidence: -4.0
(TR) Turkey Apr Consumer Confidence: 75.6 v 74.9 prior
(EU) ECB: €5.0M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. €2.0B prior; €109.7M parked in deposit facility vs. €111.5B prior
(SE) Sweden Feb Non-Manual Workers Wages Y/Y: 1.8%
(SE) Sweden Mar Retail Sales M/M: -0.4% v +0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.8% v 2.3%e
(DE) Germany Apr CPI Brandenburg M/M: -0.4 v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.3% prior
(DE) Germany Apr CPI Hesse M/M: -0.6 v +0.3% prior; Y/Y: 0.9% v 1.3% prior
(IT) Italy Mar Hourly Wages M/M; 0.0% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.4% prior
(NO) Norway Q1 Industrial Confidence: 1 v 5 prior
(DE) Germany Apr CPI Baden Wuerttemberg M/M: -0.5% v +0.4% prior; Y/Y: 0.9 v 1.0% prior
(DE) Germany Apr CPI North Rhine Westphalia M/M: -0.4% v +0.5% prior; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.4% prior
(EU) Euro Zone Apr Business Climate Indicator: -0.93 v -0.91e; Consumer Confidence: -22.3 v -22.3e; Economic Confidence: 88.6 v 89.3e; Industrial Confidence: -13.8 v -13.5e; Services Confidence: -11.1 v -7.1e
(IT) Italy Apr Business Confidence: 87.6 v 88.9e; Economic Sentiment: 74.6 v 78.5 prior
(PT) Portugal Apr Consumer Confidence: -54.2 v -55.3 prior; Economic Climate Indicator: -3.6 v -3.9 prior
(IC) Iceland Apr CPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 3.3% v 3.9% prior
Fixed Income:
(DK) Denmark sold ISK3.0B in 1-month, 5-month and 7-month Bills.
(IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total €6.0B vs. €6.0B indicated in 2018 and 2023 BTP bonds.
Sold €3Bvs. €2.0-3.0BB indicated range in 3.5% June 2018 BTP Bond; Avg Yield 2.84% (lowest since Oct 2010) v 3.65% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.36x v 1.22 x prior
Sold €3B v €2.0-3.0B indicated range 4.50% Nov 2023 BTP bonds, Avg yield 3.94% (lowest since Oct 2010) v 4.66% prior; bid to cover 1.42x 1.33x prior
(DE) Germany sold €2.815B in 12 Month BuBills; Avg Yield: 0.0018% v 0.0166% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.8x v 1.5x prior
SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM
Equities
FTSE 100 flat at 6,428, DAX +0.30% at 7,842, CAC-40 +0.60% at 3,834, IBEX-35 +1.3% at 8,402, FTSE MIB +1.6% at 16,825, SMI 0.25% at 7,877, S&P 500 Futures +0.30% at 1,581
European equity markets are broadly higher. Italy's FTSE MIB has outperformed as a coalition government was formed. Key events for the week include rate decisions from the U.S. Fed, ECB and monthly U.S. payrolls data. Banks are broadly higher, led by Italian financials. Resource rated firms are mostly higher, in line with the gains being seen in metal prices.
Belgium movers [Ageas +5.5% (asset sale)]
U.K. movers [Aberdeen Asset Management +8.5% (H1 profits rose y/y), Rentokil +5% (sold stake in City Link), Persimmon +3% (broker commentary); Balfour Beatty -11% (profit warning for UK unit), Greggs -7% (profit warning), Sainsbury -1% (broker commentary), WPP -1% (broker commentary)]
Germany movers [BASF -3% (broker commentary, ex-dividend), Bayer -2% (ex-dividend)]
Norway movers [Aker Solutions -20% (profit warning)]